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Barry Norman
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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 21, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD dipped farther this morning to trade at 1.0477 coming off of the 1.05 price just a few days ago, as businesses began to complain of the effects of the strong Aussie. The Australian dollar is lower along with other risk currencies due to concerns about negotiations in the United States to avert the so-called fiscal cliff.

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The Australian economy is very dependent on its trade with the US and US tourism, that anything has a negative effect on the Aussie.

Australia’s treasurer has stepped away from his government’s promise to return the budget to surplus in the current fiscal year, blaming lower than predicted company tax revenue and the strong Australian dollar for the nation’s worsening financial position.

Wayne Swan, who is also acting prime minister, announced the probable deficit in the year ending June 30, 2013, after the Finance Department announced on Thursday that tax receipts for the year to October were 112 billion Australian dollars ($117 billion) — almost AU$4 billion below the government’s forecast.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

 

NZD

 

 

Business Confidence 

22.70

 

 

 

26.40 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

RBA Bulletin 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

  

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 21

01:45

 

NZD

 

 

Visitor Arrivals (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

-1.7% 

 

 

 

04:01

 

GBP

 

 

GfK Consumer Confidence 

 

 

-25 

 

-22 

 

 

 

06:00

 

NZD

 

 

Credit Card Spending

 

 

 

 

-0.9% 

 

 

 

09:00

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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