AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 5, 2016

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7555 up a few pips on the shift in the US dollar. There is no data on the calendar today until the US market opens and the big event unfolds. The US jobs report will be the controlling factor in the markets today as traders sit tight. Business Insider reported that the Aussie pushed higher overnight, befitting from the release of a weak US manufacturing PMI report for August and position adjustments before the release of tonight’s key US non-farm payrolls report.

In other words, it was US dollar weakness, rather than Australian dollar strength, that pushed the Aussie higher.

In Asia, there are no major market moving events scheduled domestically or regionally, ensuring all of the focus will be on tonight’s US non-farm payrolls report for August, an event some believe has the potential to bring forward a US interest rate hike from the Fed in September.

“Friday’s US August non-farm payrolls report remains the key driver of near term Fed funds rate expectations and the USD,” notes Haddad. “A strong US August non-farm payrolls report on Friday will raise odds of a September Fed funds rate hike and push the USD higher.”

Though most of the focus will be on the headline payrolls number, Haddad suggests that movements in the US dollar, hence the Aussie, will be driven by the average weekly earnings figure found within the report.

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 September 5, 2016

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