TRUMP Memecoin May Dip Another 10% as Warren Demands SEC Probe

Official Trump (TRUMP), a controversial memecoin associated with US President Donald Trump, risks falling by another 10% as its price consolidates inside a bearish continuation pattern.

At the same time, fresh political scrutiny and potential token sales add pressure to an already weak market outlook.

TRUMP Bear Flag Targets $1.30

As of Thursday, Aug. 6, TRUMP was trading near $1.455, down roughly 20% from its early-July peak near $1.82, and 98% since its January 2025 debut.

The memecoin’s four-hour chart shows the price forming what appears to be a bear flag after its sharp decline in late July.

A bear flag develops when an asset consolidates upward inside a parallel channel following a steep sell-off. The pattern typically resolves after the price breaks below the channel’s lower trendline and falls by approximately the height of the preceding decline.

TRUMP is currently fluctuating between the flag’s support near $1.42 and resistance around $1.49.

A decisive four-hour close below $1.42 could confirm the breakdown and send TRUMP toward $1.30, representing roughly a 10% decline from current levels.

The bearish setup is reinforced by TRUMP trading below its key exponential moving averages. Its 50- (red), 100- (purple) and 200-period (blue) EMAs sit near $1.47, $1.50 and $1.57, respectively, creating several resistance layers above the price.

Meanwhile, TRUMP’s four-hour relative strength index has slipped below 50, indicating weakening momentum. The pattern would lose credibility if the token closes decisively above the flag resistance around $1.49–$1.50.

Warren’s SEC Probe Request Adds To Selling Risks

TRUMP’s technical weakness appeared alongside a request from US Senators Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate the memecoin.

In an Aug. 4 letter to SEC Chair Paul Atkins, the senators asked the agency to examine whether TRUMP facilitated fraud or “unjust enrichment.” They cited reports claiming that nearly one million investors lost a combined $3.81 billion, while Trump earned approximately $636 million from the project.

The letter represents a request for an investigation, not confirmation that the SEC has opened one or established wrongdoing.

TRUMP Memcoins Also Faces Supply-Side Risks

On July 15, the Official Trump project disclosed on July 15 that, over the coming months, less than 9.6% of the token’s one-billion maximum supply could be selectively deployed, sold, distributed or otherwise monetized.

The tokens have already unlocked, meaning their movement is not dependent on future vesting dates. The project said any dispositions would depend on market conditions and could fund partnerships, acquisitions, gaming and other ecosystem initiatives.

On July 25, a team-linked wallet also transferred 10.84 million TRUMP, then worth about $16.91 million, toward custody infrastructure associated with BitGo.

Lookonchain suggested the assets could eventually move to exchanges, although the transfer itself did not confirm that any tokens were sold.

Political scrutiny, potential inventory dispositions, and the developing bear flag increase the probability of TRUMP testing the $1.30 support level in the coming sessions.