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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, August 17 – August 21, 2015 Forecast

James Hyerczyk
Weekly AUD/USD
Weekly AUD/USD

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD had a volatile week, reaching a new low for the year, but closing only slightly lower for the week after the People’s Bank of China devalued its currency three times. The Forex pair would’ve fell further if Chinese authorities had not steeped in to halt the slide in the Yuan. 

The recovery by the Aussie was also fueled by speculation that the Fed would once again delay an interest rate hike that 55 percent of traders believed would take place as soon as September. 

The Aussie could be underpinned by Tuesday’s release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Minutes. At its last meeting, the central bank refrained from a rate hike and hinted that prices may have reached fair value. This was interpreted to mean that there would be no further rate cuts in 2015. Traders will look at the minutes to verify the guidance suggested in the monetary policy statement. 

Wednesday’s U.S. consumer inflation report and the Fed minutes are also likely to be market moving events. Although traders now believe the Fed will refrain from a rate hike in September because of the turmoil caused by China’s devaluation, the decision is likely to be reaffirmed by a weaker-than-expected CPI number. Last week Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer also said that a rate hike is not a done deal because of low inflation concerns. 

As long as China backs away from further devaluations, the elimination of a September rate hike combined with technically oversold conditions are likely to be supportive for the AUD/USD this week. However, the price action is expected to remain volatile because of the uncertainty surrounding China and the strength of its economy. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports. 

Weekly AUD/USD

Important Reports to Watch this Week

           Date                        Time               Curr                                Event                                                          Forecast Previous                                                                                              

Mon Aug 17

 8:30am ET

USD

 

Empire State Manufacturing Index

   

5.0

3.9

 
 

9:30pm ET

AUD

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

         

Tue Aug 18

8:30am ET

USD

 

Building Permits

   

1.21M

1.34M

 
   

USD

 

Housing Starts

   

1.20M

1.17M

 

Wed Aug 19

8:30am ET

USD

 

CPI m/m

   

0.2%

0.3%

 
   

USD

 

Core CPI m/m

   

0.2%

0.2%

 
 

10:30am ET

USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

     

-1.7M

 
 

2:00pm ET

USD

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes

         

Thu Aug 20

2:45am ET

USD

 

FOMC Member Williams Speaks

         
 

8:30am ET

USD

 

Unemployment Claims

   

272K

274K

 
 

10:00am ET

USD

 

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

   

7.2

5.7

 
   

USD

 

Existing Home Sales

   

5.45M

5.49M

 

Fri Aug 21

9:45am ET

USD

 

Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

53.5

53.8

 
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