Aussie Rebounds as Broad AUD Strength Permeates

AUD Strength Broadens Across Major FX Crosses

After a bad selloff on Friday, AUD is back at bid. AUD/USD is up over 0.75%, AUD/EUR is up 0.5%, AUD/GBP is up over 0.25%, AUD/JPY is up 0.50%, AUD/CAD is up over 0.50% and AUD/CHF is up over 0.25%. From the heat map it’s not just a weak USD. AUD has been in demand over the last 24 hours. There are still issues to be aware of, particularly negotiations between US and Iran over their war, which has caused energy prices to be at historical highs.

AUD is Bid Across the Board, Rising Against, USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD and CHF, With Only Mild Softness Versus NZD

AUD/USD Weekly Pullback Tests Fibonacci Support

From a weekly perspective AUD/USD hit some resistance around the 0.72715 price level after 6 weeks of positive price moves. The FX cross appears to have found some support around the 0.71115 level, with further support seen at 0.70720, at the short term Supertrend line. Expectations are for a re-test of the 0.72715 resistance and once AUD/USD breaks through that the next level to watch is 0.7407.

AUD/USD Weekly Chart Shows Price Easing From Recent Highs While Holding Above Short and Long Term Supertrend Support

AUD/USD Daily Chart Reclaims Momentum Near 21-EMA

AUD/USD has pushed below its 21-EMA on the daily chart, testing 0.71015 support. Thus far, the RSI has been briefly below 50 but appears to be recovering. This looks like AUD/USD is making a higher low before proceeding to move higher to test 0.72775 resistance.

AUD/USD Daily Chart Shows Price Rebounding Toward the 21-EMA After a Short Pullback from the 0.7188 Resistance Zone

AUD/JPY Renko Holds Firm Above Trend Following Support

AUD/JPY held above the 50-SMA but slipped below the bullish Supertrend which has now switched to negative. While the RSI has flipped back above 50 the Z-Score SMA is still trending lower so we may still see some consolidation on the FX pair in the short term. Nonetheless, the overall trend for AUD/JPY is upward and it is expected that it would make another attempt to break through 114.305.

AUD/JPY 0.225-Brick Renko Chart Shows Price Holding Above the 50-SMA and 500-SMA, With Momentum Stabilizing Near Neutral Territory

AUD/USD Renko Pullback Shows Some Exhaustion

AUD/USD hit some resistance at the 0.72775 level and pulled back near 0.71 support. It’s currently below its 50-SMA and the Supertrend has flipped negative with the RSI below 50-SMA. However, the downmove does appear exhausted with the Z-Score SMA hitting -2 and now turning higher. To confirm this we would need AUD/USD to climb back above the 50-SMA and the Supertrend to flip positive.

AUD/USD 0.00115-Brick Renko Chart Shows Price Slipping Below the 50-SMA

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bullish

Bias: Positive

Support Levels: 0.6833,0.70720

Resistance Levels: 0.72715, 0.74070

Medium Term Path: Despite the short term pullback, I still have a bullish and positive view on the FX cross. It’s worth noting that AUD/USD has held above medium term support and appears to have made a higher low around the 0.71-0.7110 zone. The FX pair needs to rebuild momentum before attempting to retest resistance.