The Week Ahead: CPI, Fed Chair Warsh and earnings set the tone for U.S. stocks

Market Overview

U.S. equities enter the week near record highs after another resilient performance, despite renewed geopolitical tensions and sharp rotations beneath the surface. The S&P 500 advanced 1.23% to 7,575.39, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.74% to 26,281.61. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.50% to 52,637.01, retreating modestly after reaching another record high.

This week presents one of the most important tests for markets since the start of the summer rally. Investors will have to absorb the first major wave of second-quarter earnings, critical inflation data and the first congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, all while continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on energy prices.

The inflation outlook remains the dominant macro theme. Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index and Wednesday’s Producer Price Index will help determine whether recent declines in energy prices are beginning to ease broader price pressures or whether inflation remains stubborn enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious. Treasury yields are likely to remain highly sensitive to the data.

Corporate earnings will provide the market’s first meaningful assessment of economic conditions during the second quarter. Results from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Wells Fargo should offer insight into consumer spending, loan demand and credit quality, while reports from ASML and Netflix will gauge continued strength in artificial intelligence investment and discretionary consumer spending. Together, economic data, Federal Reserve communication and corporate guidance are expected to set the tone for markets in the weeks ahead.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Jul 13

Before the Open:
• Fastenal (FAST), est. $0.33

Economic Releases:
• No major U.S. releases scheduled.

After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Tuesday, Jul 14

Before the Open:
• Bank of America (BAC), est. $1.12
• Citigroup (C), est. $2.73
• Ericsson (ERIC), est. $0.11
• Goldman Sachs (GS), est. $14.47
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM), est. $5.58
• Wells Fargo (WFC), est. $1.72

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core CPI m/m
• 12:30 GMT – Core CPI y/y
• 12:30 GMT – CPI m/m
• 12:30 GMT – CPI y/y
• 14:00 GMT – Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Testifies

After the Close:
• Phoenix Education Partners (PXED), est. $1.32

Wednesday, Jul 15

Before the Open:
• ASML (ASML), est. $6.88
• BlackRock (BLK), est. $12.53
• BNY Mellon (BNY), est. $2.23
• Cintas (CTAS), est. $1.24
• Conagra (CAG), est. $0.46
• Elevance Health (ELV), est. $6.21
• First Horizon (FHN), est. $0.52
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), est. $2.86
• M&T Bank (MTB), est. $4.66
• Morgan Stanley (MS), est. $2.93
• PNC Financial (PNC), est. $4.46
• Progressive (PGR), est. $4.73

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core PPI m/m
• 12:30 GMT – PPI m/m
• 12:30 GMT – Empire State Manufacturing Index
• 14:00 GMT – Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Testifies
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories
• 18:00 GMT – Beige Book

After the Close:
• Home Bancshares (HOMB), est. $0.61
• J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT), est. $1.72
• United Airlines (UAL), est. $1.87

Thursday, Jul 16

Before the Open:
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL), est. $0.35

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 GMT – Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 GMT – Initial Jobless Claims
• 12:30 GMT – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
• 14:00 GMT – Business Inventories m/m
• 14:00 GMT – NAHB Housing Market Index
• 14:00 GMT – Pending Home Sales m/m
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage

After the Close:
• Alcoa (AA), est. $2.32
• Cohen & Steers (CNS), est. $0.83
• F.N.B. (FNB), est. $0.42
• Simmons First National (SFNC), est. $0.52
• Netflix (NFLX), est. $0.79

Friday, Jul 17

Before the Open:
• Autoliv (ALV), est. $2.43
• Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), est. $0.84
• Regions Financial (RF), est. $0.63
• Travelers (TRV), est. $5.15

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Building Permits
• 12:30 GMT – Housing Starts
• 12:30 GMT – Import Prices m/m
• 13:15 GMT – Capacity Utilization
• 13:15 GMT – Industrial Production m/m
• 14:00 GMT – Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
• 14:00 GMT – Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations

After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Central Bank Activity

Monday, Jul 13
• Michelle Bowman (Federal Reserve Governor) – 09:25 GMT
• Christopher Waller (Federal Reserve Governor) – 16:30 GMT

Tuesday, Jul 14
• Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve Chair) – 14:00 GMT
• Michael Barr (Federal Reserve Governor) – 16:40 GMT
• Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President) – 17:00 GMT
• Michelle Bowman (Federal Reserve Governor) – 18:55 GMT

Wednesday, Jul 15
• John Williams (New York Fed President) – 12:45 GMT
• Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve Chair) – 14:00 GMT
• Lisa Cook (Federal Reserve Governor) – 17:00 GMT
• Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed President) – 22:30 GMT

Thursday, Jul 16
• Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed President) – 16:30 GMT
• Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed President) – 17:25 GMT
• Philip Jefferson (Federal Reserve Vice Chair) – 23:00 GMT

Markets will closely assess whether Federal Reserve officials reinforce a patient approach to policy following the latest inflation reports. Chair Warsh’s testimony will receive particular attention for any guidance on how policymakers balance easing inflation against risks from higher energy prices and resilient economic activity.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 52,637.01 (-0.50%), support at 50,998.94, 50,458.41, 49,173.29, 48,201.91 then 47,964.19 (52-Wk Moving Average), resistance at 53,289.30.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 26,281.61 (+1.74%), support at 23,940.23, 23,337.96 (52-Wk Moving Average), then 23,173.24, resistance at 27,190.21.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 7,575.39 (+1.23%), support at 7,237.85, 6,968.90, 6,864.21 (52-Wk Moving Average) then 6,815.03, resistance at 7,620.90.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Outlook

Markets rarely face a week where macroeconomic data, central bank communication and the opening round of earnings all carry equal weight. The combination of CPI, PPI and Chair Warsh’s congressional testimony will determine whether investors become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably lower or begin to question whether interest rates may need to remain restrictive for longer. Treasury yields are likely to provide the market’s first reaction, with equities following their lead.

Corporate earnings will then determine whether current valuations remain justified. The major banks are expected to provide the clearest assessment of consumer finances, credit conditions and business activity, while results from ASML and Netflix will test expectations surrounding artificial intelligence spending and consumer demand. Markets will be looking beyond headline earnings to management guidance, as executives provide their first broad assessment of the economic outlook for the second half of the year.

A combination of moderating inflation, balanced comments from Chair Warsh and constructive corporate guidance would support the market’s record-high momentum. However, firmer inflation, a more hawkish policy message or cautious earnings outlooks could prompt investors to reassess expectations for interest rates and equity valuations, making this one of the most consequential weeks of the quarter.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.