Avalanche’s AVAX is Making Strong Comeback After Plunging 25% This Year

Avalanche (AVAX) is staging a strong comeback in 2025, outperforming top rivals Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) after spending much of the year in the red.

As of Sept. 11, the layer-1 token was down 25% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, but was still a better performer on a 24-hour adjusted time frame, rising by up to 16.50% to hit almost $30.

In comparison, BTC and ETH jumped by around 2.50% each.

Why is AVAX Price Rising?

Avalanche’s rally follows months of underperformance, leaving AVAX undervalued compared to Bitcoin and Ether. Despite solid fundamentals in 2025, its price stayed muted until capital rotation brought fresh demand.

Onchain data shows why sentiment is shifting.

Avalanche’s DeFi TVL has nearly doubled from 37 million to 70 million AVAX this year, according to DefiLlama data.

The network’s modular design and partnerships, including with Toyota Blockchain Lab, have added confidence.

Institutional momentum is also in play. Grayscale has filed to convert its Avalanche Trust into a spot AVAX ETF on Nasdaq, while the Avalanche Foundation is targeting a $1 billion raise for US-based treasury firms.

Together, these moves point to capital finally catching up with the fundamentals.

AVAX Technical Outlook: Cup-and-Handle Breakout Hints at 30% Rally

Avalanche’s price chart shows a classic cup-and-handle breakout pattern, a bullish continuation structure that typically forms after a prolonged consolidation.

AVAX carved a rounded bottom through mid-2025, followed by a smaller handle pattern of tightening consolidation. On Sept. 10, the token broke above the handle’s resistance near $26.5, confirming the breakout with substantial volume.

The technical setup points to an upside target around $37.7, derived from adding the pattern’s depth (~$11) to the breakout level. That implies nearly 30% gains from current prices.

Supporting the move, AVAX is trading above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day exponential moving averages, while the daily RSI hovers near 66—bullish but not yet overbought.

Avalanche could extend its recovery toward the $40 mark if momentum sustains, though failed retests below $26.50 would risk invalidating the setup.