Bitcoin (BTC) Climbs Despite ETF Outflows as US Recession Fears Ease

ETF Outflows Persist Despite BTC Rebound

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.15% on Saturday, June 7, building on Friday’s 2.72% gain to close at $105,576. Notably, BTC trailed the broader crypto market, which advanced 1.38% to a total market cap of $3.25 trillion.

Friday’s US Jobs Report eased fears of a US recession, bolstering demand for risk assets going into the weekend. According to Polymarket, the chances of a 2025 recession fell to 26% on June 8, down from 30% on June 6.

However, US BTC-spot ETF market weekly outflows capped gains. According to data from Farside investors, BTC-spot ETF issuers posted net outflows of $131.6 million in the week ending June 6, after outflows of $144.8 million in the previous week. Notable weekly flows included:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $167.7 million.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported net outflows of $40.6 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $24.5 million.
• Meanwhile, BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had net inflows of $81.1 million, while VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) saw net inflows of $19.7 million.

Despite net outflows of $130.5 million on June 6, IBIT retained its dominant market position after seeing net inflows of $5,914.9 million in May.

Market sentiment toward the President Trump-Elon Musk feud likely contributed to weekly outflows. Market intelligence platform Santiment commented:

“Generally, when major crypto personalities see spikes in discussion rate, the chances of market reversals increase.”

BTC-spot ETF market flows remain crucial for BTC’s supply-demand trends and price trajectory. Strong inflows in May drove BTC to a record high of $111,917 on May 22.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s near-term price outlook hinges on several key macro and market drivers:

• US-China trade headlines will influence risk sentiment and broader crypto market demand.
• Legislative developments, including the Bitcoin Act’s progress on Capitol Hill.
• US inflation data could influence the Fed rate path.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows remain crucial to near-term price trends.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, dovish Fed cues, bipartisan support for crypto bills, and strong ETF inflows may drive BTC toward $111,917.
• Bearish Scenario: Renewed trade tensions, hawkish Fed signals, legislative setbacks, or ETF outflows could drag BTC below $100,000.

For ongoing insights into macro trends, regulation, and ETF data, follow our analysis here.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), signaling bullish momentum.

• Upside Target: A breakout from $105,000 could open the door to testing resistance at the record high of $111,917. A sustained move above $111,917 may bring $115,000 into sight.
• Downside Risk: A drop below the 50-day EMA and $100,000 could expose BTC to $95,000 and potentially the 200-day EMA.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.76 suggests BTC has room to rally to $111,917 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

Turning to ethereum (ETH), ETH trades above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs after two positive sessions, affirming bullish momentum.

Fifteen consecutive days of net inflows into the US ETH-spot ETF market contributed to ETH gains on June 6 and 7.

• Upside target: A breakout above the June 4 high of $2,680 could enable the bulls to target the $2,815 resistance level. A sustained move through $2,815 could bring $3,000 into play.
• Downside risks: If ETH drops below the 200-day EMA, the 50-day EMA and the $2,308 support level would be the next key support levels.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.91 suggests ETH could climb to $3,000 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.