Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: GBTC Outflow Downtrend Expected

Bob Mason
Published: Mar 4, 2024, 04:05 UTC

Key Points:

  • BTC gained 1.80% on Sunday, ending the session at $63,139.
  • Bets on a June Fed rate cut and sentiment toward the BTC-spot ETF market likely contributed to the BTC gains.
  • On Monday, BTC-spot ETF market flow data for the session will influence buyer demand for BTC and the broader crypto market.
Bitcoin (BTC) News Today

In this article:

The Sunday Overview

On Sunday, BTC gained 1.80%. Reversing a 0.61% loss from Saturday, BTC ended the session at $63,139.

Investors Discount the Genesis-Linked GBTC Net Outflows

In the week ending March 1, 2023, the BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $1,722.5 million. The BTC-spot ETF market recorded the second-highest weekly net inflows since January 11 and the launch of the Nine.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) contributed $2,050.5 million in net inflows, while Grayscale Bitcoin Fund (GBTC) saw net outflows surge to $1,455.7 million in the week ending March 1, 2023.

However, the Bitcoin-Spot ETF market saw net outflows of $140.0 million on Friday, March 1, leaving BTC in negative territory on Saturday, March 2. Investors attributed the net outflows to the February approval for Genesis Global Holdco LLC to liquidate GBTC shares worth approximately $1.3 billion. GBTC net outflow numbers from the week suggest a downward trend in GBTC net outflows and a return to net inflows for the BTC-spot ETF market.

GBTC Net Outlows Impact BTC-Spot ETF market trends.
BTC-spot ETF Market Flow Data – 01/03/24

Bitcoin and the US Federal Reserve: Fed Rate Cuts to Drive Buyer Demand

US economic indicators from Friday supported bets on a June Fed interest rate cut. Lower borrowing costs could drive demand for riskier assets.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June Fed rate cut increased from 52.3% to 56.8% in the week ending March 1. This week, investors must consider Fed Chair Powell testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. The US Jobs Report (Fri) may also influence bets on a June Fed rate cut.

Nonetheless, BTC-spot ETF market flows will likely remain the main driver in the near term. On Monday, March 4, BTC struck a new 2024 high of $64,202 before easing back, highlighting the influence of the BTC-spot ETF market on buyer appetite.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A BTC break above the Monday high of $64,202 would support a move to the all-time high of $69,276.

BTC-spot ETF market flows need consideration.

However, a break below the $62,000 handle would give the bears a run at the $59,176 support level.

The 14-Daily RSI reading, 81.16, shows BTC in overbought territory. Selling pressure could intensify at the Monday high of $64,202.

BTC Daily Chart sends bullish price signalsl.
BTCUSD Daily Chart 040324

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remained well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

An ETH move to the Monday high of $3,532 would support a run  at the $3,683 resistance level.

ETH-spot ETF-related updates also need consideration.

However, an ETH break below the $3,412 support level would bring the $3,200 support level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI, at 81.58, shows ETH in overbought territory. Selling pressure could intensify at the Monday high of $3,532.

ETH Daily Chart sends bullish price signals.
ETHUSD Daily Chart 040324

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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