BTC Recovery Stalls Amid September Fed Rate Cut Speculation
On Monday (June 17), bitcoin (BTC) declined by 0.10%. Partially reversing a 0.56% gain from Sunday (June 16), BTC ended the session at $66,544.
Shifting investor sentiment toward a potential September Fed rate cut influenced buyer demand for BTC and the broader crypto market.
On Monday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reportedly signaled one Fed interest rate cut for 2024 if the US economy performs in line with forecasts. While suggesting that a break from projections could adjust his outlook for interest rates, the hawkish comments influenced sentiment toward a September Fed rate cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of the Fed standing pat in September increased from 29.8% to 38.5% on Monday. US 10-year Treasury yields rose by 58 basis points to 4.281%.
The ongoing uncertainty about a September Fed rate cut impacted the US BTC-spot ETF market.
According to Farside Investors,
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $92 million on Monday.
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had net outflows of $50.0 million.
- VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported net outflows of $3.8 million and $3.0 million, respectively.
- Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) had net outflows of $2.9 million.
- Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR), the US BTC-spot ETF market registered total net outflows of $145.9 million.
The US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows for the third successive session.
US Retail Sales, Fed Speakers, and the US BTC-Spot ETF Market
With ongoing US BTC-spot ETF outflows, the US economic calendar will continue influencing buyer demand on Tuesday (June 18).
Economists forecast retail sales to increase by 0.3% in May after stalling in April. A higher-than-expected increase in retail sales could reduce investor bets on a September Fed rate cut.
Furthermore, investors should monitor FOMC Member speeches. FOMC members Thomas Barkin, Susan Collins, Adriana Kugler, Alberto Musalem, and Austan Goolsbee are on the calendar to speak. Reactions to the US retail sales figures and views on the timing of a Fed interest rate cut could impact buyer demand for US BTC-spot ETFs and BTC.
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Bitcoin Analysis
BTC remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA, confirming the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.
A BTC break above the 50-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level. A breakout from the $69,000 resistance level could signal a move toward the $73,808 all-time high.
US retail sales figures, FOMC Member chatter, and US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends require investor attention.
Conversely, a BTC drop below the $64,000 support level could give the bears a run at the $60,365 support level.
With a 41.38 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC could break below the $64,000 support level before entering oversold territory.
Ethereum Analysis
ETH sat below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
An ETH breakout from the $3,480 resistance level and the 50-day EMA could bring the $3,835 resistance level into play.
US ETH-spot ETF-related news also requires consideration.
Conversely, an ETH break below the $3,400 handle could signal a drop to the $3,244 support level.
The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 44.03, suggests an ETH fall to the $3,244 support level before entering oversold territory.
