Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook: Fed Policy, Jobs Data, and ETF Flows in Focus; ETH Eyes $5,000

Bitcoin Gets Boost from Spot ETF Market Flows

On Saturday, August 30, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.42%, partially reversing Friday’s 3.67% loss to close at $108,890. BTC failed to break above the crucial $115,000 for the sixth straight session.

US BTC-spot ETF market inflows for the week were crucial in preventing heavier losses before Saturday’s partial recovery. On Friday, August 29, BTC-spot ETF issuers reported total net outflows of $126.7 million, snapping a four-day inflow streak.

Despite Friday’s outflows, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported weekly net inflows of $440.8 million for the week ending August 29. According to Farside Investors, key weekly net flows included:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported weekly net inflows of $247.9 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net inflows of $78.6 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) reported net inflows of $46.2 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $33.5 million.

While weekly flows bolstered BTC demand at current price levels, August’s total net outflows of $749.2 million left BTC well below its record high of $123.731 (August 14).

ETH Pulls Back from $5,000 as ETF Demand Wanes

Bitcoin’s fate may hinge on ETF momentum as Ethereum (ETH) surges ahead. ETH-spot ETF inflows lifted ETH from its weekly low of $4,260 (August 29). The US ETH-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $1.083 billion in the week ending August 29. Significantly, ETH-spot ETF issuers reported total net inflows of $3.698 billion in August, outshining BTC-spot ETFs.

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Analyst James Seyffart commented on the US ETH-spot ETF market flows, stating:

“Ethereum ETFs are on an absolute tear. They’ve taken in nearly $10 billion since the start of July. Here’s what their flows look like since launch – nearly $14 billion.”

ETH is currently up 20.41% in August, while BTC is down 5.67%, underscoring the effects of spot ETF flows on price action.

See our in-depth ETH vs BTC ETF flow breakdown here.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Several macro and market factors will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:

• Legislative developments: the CLARITY Act’s progress on Capitol Hill.
• US economic data: US ISM Services PMI and US Jobs Report.
• Federal Reserve policy and statements.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Easing US stagflation risks, dovish Fed rhetoric, bipartisan support for crypto legislation, and ETF inflows. These factors could send BTC back toward its record high of $123,731.
• Bearish Scenario: Increasing US stagflation risks, hawkish Fed signals, legislative setbacks, or ETF outflows could push BTC toward $100,000.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while holding above the 200-day EMA. The longer-term trend remains bullish, but $100,000 remains a crucial support level if momentum continues to fade.

• Upside Target: A breakout above $110,000 could enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA and the $115,000 level. A sustained move through $115,000 may bring the record high of $123,731 into play.
• On the downside, a break below $107,500 could pave the way to the 200-day EMA. If breached, $100,000 would be the next key support level.

Track BTC and ETH market trends with our real-time data and insights here.

Ethereum Outlook Hinged on ETF Flows

Turning to Ethereum (ETH), the token remains above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bullish bias.

• Upside target: A breakout above $4,500 could signal a move toward the August 24 high of $4,958. A sustained move through the $4,958 may bring $6,000 into sight.
• On the downside, a break below the $4,085 support level could expose the 50-day EMA. If breached, $3,563 would be the next key support level.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.