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Bitcoin Forecast – Bearish Analog Supports $9500 Price Target

By:
AG Thorson
Published: Oct 18, 2022, 15:25 UTC

Below are the benchmarks paralleling the 2018 breakdown pattern to now. If the analog persists, expect a post-election capitulation starting in November. 

Bitcoin Bear FX Empire

In a recent update titled Will Bitcoin Capitulate? Benjamin Cowen highlights similarities between bitcoin patterns that could signal a 50% collapse from current levels.

Diving deeper into his analysis, I expose startling parallels that support this thesis with a potential bitcoin target of $9500 by mid-December.

Bitcoin Cycles

In case you were unaware, the bitcoin cycle peaks every 4-years. Typically, prices top in the fourth quarter, preceding a mid-term election (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029, etc.).

Why do prices peak a year before the mid-terms? I think it’s because one party loses control of the House or the Senate, creating a divided government. Liquidity dries up, creating a risk-off environment.

Bitcoin Price Forecast

Below are the benchmarks paralleling the 2018 breakdown pattern to now. If the analog persists, expect a post-election capitulation starting in November.

  • After the 4-year cycle peak, bitcoin enters a grueling 5 to 6-month decline dropping over 70%.
  • Prices bottom mid-year, typically in June, and consolidate in a triangle pattern.
  • Prices dip in October as political candidates face off – prices trend quietly higher into the elections.
  • A sharp post-election breakdown begins in November lasting about a month.

Chart Description automatically generated

Note: The post-election decline in 2018 was about 47%. A similar outcome in 2022 implies a $9500 bitcoin target.

What Could Go Wrong?

To cancel the above analog: bitcoin would have to break the triangle pattern and close above the August $25,212 pivot. I think the odds of a bullish outcome are low and would assign a 70% probability to hitting new lows.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more charts and regular updates, please visit here.

About the Author

AG Thorsoncontributor

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.

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