Bitcoin News Today: Fed Rate Cut Bets, BTC-Spot ETFs, and Craig Wright in the Spotlight

Key Insights:

• BTC gained 0.13% on Monday, closing the session at $42,679.
• US ISM Services PMI numbers sank bets on a March Fed rate cut, returning BTC below the $43,000 handle.
• On Tuesday, BTC-spot ETF-related updates and Fed commentary warrant investor attention.

BTC-Spot ETF Market Reopens with a Whimper

On Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst James Seyffart shared the trading volumes for the BTC-spot ETF market Monday session.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) registered the highest trading volumes, closely followed by iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). However, trading volumes were substantially lower than in recent sessions.

iShares Bitcoin Trust saw trading volume fall from $303.4 million on Thursday to $110.7 million on Friday. Significantly, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund saw trading volume fall from $171.1 million to $73.1 million. Total trading volumes (excl. GBTC) fell from $637.4 million to $260.2 million on Friday (Day 17 of trading).

With trading volumes lower, GBTC outflows were the lowest since January 11, 2023. On Monday, BitMEX Research posted that GBTC outflows declined from $144.6 million to $108 million on Monday, February 5.

Fed Chair Powell and US Services PMI Data Impact the BTC Market

BTC gained 0.13% on Monday. Partially reversing a 0.91% loss from Sunday, BTC ended the Monday session at $42,679.

BTC recovered from a hawkish Fed Chair Powell speech throughout the morning, striking a session high of $43,553. However, a hotter-than-expected ISM Services PMI survey sank bets on a March Fed rate cut. BTC fell below the $43,000 handle.

Falling bets on a March Fed rate cut also likely impacted BTC-spot ETF trading volumes.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a March Fed rate cut fell from 20.0% to 16.5% on Monday. Notably, investors remained divided about a May Fed rate cut. The chance of a 25-basis point May Fed rate cut eased from 59.9% to 52.6% on Monday. The markets also reduced bets on a 50-basis point Fed rate cut from 13.3% to 8.9%.

Other Bitcoin-Related News

The Craig Wright trial started in earnest on Monday. The Crypto Open Patent Alliance (COPA) alleges Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto. Craig Wright’s barrister reportedly submitted,

“This issue has been the subject of extensive media comment since early 2016, as well as multiple sets of legal proceedings in this jurisdiction and elsewhere. If Dr. Wright were not Satoshi, the real Satoshi would have been expected to come forward to counter the claim.”

The crypto community remains skeptical about his claim to be Satoshi Nakamoto. Until now, Craig Wright has not produced the private keys to access over 1 million in BTC coins mined by Nakamoto.

Craig Wright will give evidence on Tuesday.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

A BTC break above the $42,968 resistance level would support a move to the $44,690 resistance level.

On Tuesday, BTC-spot ETF-related news, US lawmaker chatter, and SEC activity need investor consideration.

However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring the $39,861 support level into play.

The 14-Daily RSI reading, 51.64, suggests a BTC move to the $44,690 resistance level before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sat above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

An ETH break above the $2,350 handle would support a move to the $2,457 resistance level.

Investors must track ETH-spot ETF-related news.

However, an ETH break below the 50-day EMA and $2,300 support level would bring the $2,143 support level into play. Buying pressure could intensify at the $2,300 resistance level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the $2,300 resistance level.

The 14-period Daily RSI at 48.79 indicates an ETH drop to the $2,143 support level before entering oversold territory.