Bitcoin Price Analysis: Institutional Buying Mirrors 450% Rally Setup From 2020

Bitcoin’s (BTC) institutional accumulation just hit levels that were last seen before its 2020 bull run. Just this time, policy support and technicals align, presenting a solid bullish structure.

Institution’s Bitcoin Accumulation Hit 2020’s Pre-Bull Run Levels

Bitcoin’s institutional buy-sell ratio, which measures the net buying activity of institutions and corporate treasuries, breached 97% on Thursday for the first time since August 2020, when BTC was still under $12,000.

The ratio, tracked by Capriole Investments, reflects the percentage of Bitcoin transactions from major holders that are net buys. A spike this steep suggests aggressive accumulation by funds, corporations, and treasuries, many of whom operate quietly ahead of broad market moves.

Back in 2020, a similar surge in this metric preceded Bitcoin’s breakout toward $69,000. This time, BTC trades around $118,500, modestly below its record high of over $123,000.

Unlike retail-driven rallies, institutional demand tends to be methodical and persistent. It often foreshadows broader adoption, and in today’s context, that could mean accelerating ETF inflows, strategic treasury diversification, and possibly even nation-state involvement.

More Institutions May Buy Bitcoin Following White House’s Endorsement

Fundamentals support a bullish scenario for Bitcoin.

US President Donald Trump’s administration has unveiled a sweeping crypto policy agenda aimed at accelerating digital asset adoption in the country.

A report released Wednesday by the White House Working Group on Digital Asset Markets urges regulators like the SEC and CFTC to immediately clarify rules for trading, custody, and recordkeeping of cryptocurrencies.

It also calls for safe harbors to allow innovative financial products to reach consumers without bureaucratic delays.

Among the proposals is the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which would grant the CFTC authority over spot markets for non-security digital assets, addressing a long-standing gap in oversight.

“Policymakers can ensure that the United States leads the blockchain revolution and ushers in the Golden Age of Crypto,” the White House said.

Technical indicators also suggest that a major move may be brewing.

Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands on the daily chart have tightened to levels not seen in years, a classic precursor to heightened volatility. This compression signals a breakout is imminent, though direction remains the key question.

At the same time, the daily relative strength index (RSI) is attempting to break out of a month-long downtrend, forming a bullish divergence with price.

Meanwhile, every dip toward the $116,000–$117,000 region has been met with aggressive buying, showing strong underlying demand.

If the RSI breaks above its descending trendline and BTC decisively closes above the Bollinger Band midline (~$118,350), momentum could quickly shift in favor of the bulls.

Analyst Quinten Francois sees Bitcoin rising to $185,000 by 2025’s end.