Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC Break Through the $120,000 Barrier in October?

Bitcoin (BTC) started October on a strong note, jumping 4.85% in just two days to climb above $119,500 on Thursday.

The rally mirrors fresh highs across global risk assets, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and MSCI’s world index all setting records this week.

Crypto traders, meanwhile, are betting on history to rhyme: Bitcoin has closed most Octobers in the green, delivering over 20% average returns since 2013.

That is fueling hopes among traders for another classic “Uptober” rally.

But does the onchain and technical analysis data reflect the same upside sentiment? Let’s examine.

BTC Corrections Likely in the First Half of October

Bitcoin’s explosive rally to $119,500 has already left behind the first signs of exhaustion.

On the 4-hour chart, BTC printed what traders call a bearish rejection candle, a tall wick at the top of a green candle that signals buyers tried to push higher, but sellers quickly stepped in.

At the same time, the relative strength index (RSI)—a momentum gauge—has surged above 80, well into “overbought” territory (anything above 70 is considered overheated).

It doesn’t guarantee a major crash, but it suggests Bitcoin may need to cool off before pushing higher.

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s rally came just days after forming a Golden Cross on the chart, when the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) crosses above the 200 EMA.

When the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term one, it’s often seen as a long-term bullish signal.

But they don’t immediately translate into price gains. In mid-September, for instance, BTC dipped by over 2% despite printing a golden crossover, only to rise after testing the 50-period EMA as support.

A similar scenario could lead BTC price toward its 50-period EMA at around $113,675, a level aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line, by mid-October.

BTC Daily Chart Points to $120,000 and Beyond

Zooming out to the daily time frame, Bitcoin has confirmed a breakout from a falling wedge pattern, a bullish setup where price squeezes between two downward-sloping lines before springing higher.

The breakout projects a technical target above $120,000, which conveniently overlaps with the upper boundary of a larger broadening wedge pattern (the dashed range in the chart below).

That confluence means $120,000 is both a magnet and a potential ceiling.

If BTC struggles to break above it, traders may see a healthy pullback toward the 50-day EMA (around $113,800) in the first half of October before any sustained move higher.

How High Can Bitcoin Price Rise if It Breaks $120,000?

Bitcoin’s price action around the $120,000 level could define the rest of October.

On the three-day chart, BTC has been trading inside a rising wedge, a pattern typically seen as bearish. However, this structure has already produced one fakeout earlier this year, and the current setup hints at a repeat.

The key factor here is Bitcoin’s defense of its 50-period EMA support (around $109,800). Holding this moving average keeps the broader uptrend intact, while reclaiming the wedge’s lower trendline as support strengthens the bullish case.

If buyers push BTC decisively above $120,000, the next technical target sits near $126,750, a potential record high marked further by the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.