Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC Hit $138K as US Shutdown Risks Grow?

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed on Monday as looming US government shutdown risks injected fresh volatility into markets.

The flagship cryptocurrency gained over 2.4% in the past 24 hours to trade near $112,335, recovering most of its Sept. 25 crash losses. The rebound has kept bulls’ hopes alive for a record high in October, with both technical setups and onchain flows tilting in Bitcoin’s favor.

Let’s examine.

Why is Bitcoin Rallying Amid US Government Shutdown Risks?

On prediction markets such as Polymarket, probabilities of a US government funding lapse have climbed into the 60–80% range, reflecting deepening gridlock.

Analysts warn that crucial economic reports—from nonfarm payrolls to Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures—could be delayed, muddying the macro outlook if lawmakers disagree.

With weaker signals, the Federal Reserve may operate with less clarity, which in turn could boost bets on rate cuts.

The US dollar has weakened in response. US stock futures, on the other hand, edged higher on Monday, mirroring Bitcoin’s 2.40% rebound. The synchronized move underscores traders’ positioning for volatility by rotating into equities, crypto, and other high-beta plays.

Regulatory uncertainty is now elevated. A shutdown would hamper the operations of agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), potentially delaying approvals, filings, and enforcement actions.

That may spur short-term demand in Bitcoin versus the altcoin market as participants rush to lock in positions before rules become murkier.

Bitcoin SOPR Signals Short-Term Capitulation, Long-Term Conviction

That resilience is also showing up onchain.

The SOPR ratio (long-term holder vs. short-term holder) has dropped back to 1.5, per CryptoQuant. This means short-term holders are realizing heavier losses while long-term holders remain steady, a classic capitulation setup.

The exact structure appeared in late 2024, right before Bitcoin staged a robust rebound. Historically, such low SOPR zones align with price bottoms, marking the final stretch of corrections.

Combined with macro tailwinds from a weaker dollar, the current SOPR signal reinforces the case for “short-term pain, long-term gain.”

Bitcoin Technical Outlook Hints at Record Highs By Year’s End

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action remains inside a large symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. This setup, defined by converging trendlines of lower highs and higher lows, often precedes a major breakout.

The latest bounce from the $111,000–$112,000 zone suggests bulls are defending the structure’s ascending support line.

A decisive close above the 50-day EMA near $113,300 would tilt the bias toward a retest of the upper trendline around $118,000. A breakout beyond that resistance could unlock a move toward $138,000, the triangle’s projected target.

Conversely, a failure to hold above the $108,000–$110,000 support range risks a breakdown, opening the door to a deeper correction toward the 200-day EMA near $106,300.

Until then, the triangle setup balances Bitcoin’s bullish and bearish scenarios.