Bitcoin (BTC) has gone up by 6% in the past 7 days and rose to $74,000 at some point during the week as U.S. investors piled into the token via exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
According to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs have brought in a total of $917 million during the first four days of the week.
Even though they withdrew $227 million yesterday, sentiment seems to have shifted as the top crypto managed to break out of its consolidation pattern.
As we highlighted in a previous Bitcoin price prediction, we needed a clean breakout above the $72,000 resistance to confirm that this was a true rally.
We got it, and now the price is retesting this key area from above. Now, we need to see that former resistance turn into support to confirm a bullish outlook that could push BTC back to $85,000 at least in the near term.
Despite the recovery, data from Santiment shows that social volumes for BTC have only been this low two times in the past.
This tells us a few things about Bitcoin’s dominant bearish narrative:
This recent rally still needs to go way higher before sentiment starts to seriously recover. Staying above $70,000 is critical for BTC right now, as a move below could endanger the rally and plunge BTC back to $62,000.
Looking at the daily chart, a buy signal has popped up in this higher time frame. The signal flashed two days ago, as BTC broke out of consolidation.
This signals system tracks “decisional” candles that feature above-average volumes, a clear trend direction, and a specific candle pattern.
Since the signal came up at a technically relevant moment, this increases the odds that this was a true breakout. Institutional and “whale” participation seems to have backed the move, at a point when geopolitical tensions are rising.
We expect BTC to retrace to $70,000 to find enough liquidity to keep rallying. If that level holds, and the price bounces back strongly off it, that would confirm that we are entering a “relief” stage after a strong capitulation.
If the rally continues, our near-term target for BTC continues to be $85,000, meaning a 21.4% upside potential.
Heading to the hourly chart, we can see a potential entry for BTC at $69,300. This was a relevant supply zone in the past that could now have turned into support.
There’s also a fair value gap (FVG) at this level, which increases the odds that market makers will push the price to this area to fill all pending buy orders at that level.
We are getting close to hitting oversold in the hourly chart, which increases the odds of a strong rebound. If confirmed, a long position could be set at this level with a near-term target of $73,500 that would feature a 3.5x risk-reward ratio.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.