Bitcoin Price Outlook: Can BTC Reclaim $75K As Trump’s 48-Hour Deadline Nears?

Bitcoin (BTC) price recovered from the weekend selloff, defying fears about President Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.

On Monday, March 23, the BTC/USD exchange rate rose 2.14% to $68,875, recovering partially from the circa 6% decline over the weekend.

Trump warned that Iranian power plants could be targeted if the waterway is not fully reopened, while Tehran has threatened retaliation against regional energy infrastructure if such strikes happen.

The standoff has kept oil elevated and risk appetite under pressure across global markets.

Bitcoin On-Chain Metric Show Price is Near Bottom

Still, Bitcoin’s rebound suggests traders are not yet pricing in a worst-case Middle East escalation. Instead, the market appears to view the weekend drop as a panic flush, with buyers returning near key support.

That resilience is also showing up on-chain.

“Despite the geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin has been exceptionally resilient during the past seven days,” CryptoQuant analyst OINONEN said, noting that BTC’s market value is now nearing its realized value.

In CryptoQuant’s framework, that means Bitcoin is approaching the MVRV deep value zone.

The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, or the aggregate value of all coins based on the price at which they last moved on-chain.

Historically, an MVRV reading below 1 has signaled that Bitcoin is trading below its aggregate cost basis, a condition typically associated with undervaluation and long-term buying opportunities.

Such readings have often appeared near major market bottoms, while elevated MVRV levels have tended to coincide with overheated conditions near cycle tops.

BTC Eyes $75,000 Next

Technically, Bitcoin is rebounding within an ascending channel after its sharp February breakdown, signaling a short-term recovery attempt as buyers defend the $60,000-$62,000 area.

The key level to watch is the channel’s upper boundary near $74,000-$75,000, which also aligns with horizontal resistance. A daily close above that zone could open the door to a broader move toward $80,000.

Still, caution is warranted. BTC remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while RSI stays under 50, indicating weak momentum and a broader downtrend still in play.

That keeps Bitcoin highly sensitive to macro shocks.

If US-Iran tensions worsen and oil keeps rising, BTC may continue trading like a risk asset. Failure to break above $75,000 could send the price back toward channel support near $64,000, with a deeper downside risk toward $47,600 if that floor breaks.