Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Ceasefire Holds — Gold Defends $4,697, Silver Surges to $87 as CPI Hits Rate Cuts?

Gold and Silver Steady as Investors Weigh Inflation Data and Ceasefire Durability

Gold and silver traded with modest conviction on May 13, 2026, as traders absorbed higher than expected U.S. inflation data for April and continued to factor in how long the conditional U.S.-Iran ceasefire might hold. The U.S. CPI numbers, with headline and core prints coming in above expectations, may dampen near-term bets for Fed rate cuts and provide some headwinds to metals.

Central banks continue to be major buyers of gold and, as a reminder, the People’s Bank of China has bought gold for beyond 17 consecutive months. In addition, other emerging markets continue to fill their official gold reserves.

Silver, which has a large industrial side to it, continues to balance the reduction in safe-haven flows against continued global supply deficits. Demand from solar and electric vehicles, as well as electronics and AI continues to support demand for the silver market, though some cooling in demand for inflation hedges as oil prices continue to trend lower.

While the ceasefire holds and the oil trade normalizes in a step-wise fashion, markets may be transitioning from more of an inflation/geopolitical story to one more heavily focused on underlying fundamentals. The Fed speaks this week and will give us more guidance on rate cuts.

Gold Spot Reclaims $4,697 – Blue Descending Channel Floor Defended

Gold spot has managed to bounce back and is trading at $4,697 following a period of green rejection candles that defended the $4,686 price level and blue descending channel floor. We can see that price printed a bullish hammer after the price distribution from red MA at $4,718 and has held above $4,561 0.786 Fib. We see higher lows formed in recent days inside of a wide multi-week range. Red descending trendline remains above price at $4,711 to cap near term rallies.

The RSI sits at 48 on 4H, still with positive divergence. Volume profile shows that the $4,680 to $4,697 confluence has established strong support to bounce price up. Resistance lies above at $4,711 to $4,723 (0.382 Fib level) and $4,774 (channel extension of $4,686 to $4,561). Price range-bound below $4,715 and is showing some level of stabilization in the near term at $4,697 after holding blue descending channel floor.

Trade idea: Buy $4,697 targeting $4,711. Stop $4,686.

Silver Spot Surges to $87.07 – White Ascending Trendline Breakout

Silver spot prices have rallied significantly higher and price is trading at $87.07 on 4H time frame chart. Silver prices have moved higher along white ascending trendline line since early May lows as silver prices have moved higher with green engulfing candles. Price has broken through the $86.00 red MA and moved higher than recent swing high levels to print clear higher highs and higher lows. RSI has moved higher and is sitting at 60 confirming strong momentum.

Fib extension from recent base level suggests price target at $88.00 to $89.73 channel top. Blue trendline remains below price as dynamic support at $84.90. Volume profile has established strong buying at $84 as new support level in near term. Structure remains bullish above $82.12 as silver prices ride higher along white ascending trendline with clear higher lows.

Trade idea: Buy $87.07 targeting $88.00. Stop $86.00.