Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Ceasefire Holds — WTI Reclaims $101, Brent Defends $106 — NatGas Tests $2.89?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Steady as Fundamentals Take Precedence

On May 13, 2026, oil prices were mostly calm, with US-Iran truce still on in effect more than a month after the end of hostilities. Some of the oil tankers carrying crude oil were seen leaving Iran through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that there was a certain level of normalization in the flow of goods. The deal put an end to an otherwise volatile situation and lifted the geopolitical risk premium which had kept market prices high in March and April, which now enables oil traders to return to basic fundamentals.

WTI and Brent are indicative of the current balance between oil supply and demand, which seems relatively well-balanced. The United States continues to post healthy output levels, alongside production cuts by OPEC+. However, there is also a need to rebuild supply in the region which is currently damaged by the aftermath of a war; therefore, we are not likely to expect full supply recovery from Iran and its neighbors just yet. There is, however, some evidence that in price-sensitive countries, demand has started to decline as consumers grapple with high prices that they could barely tolerate.

On the gas front, prices also remained steady because of healthy inventory build in the US and Europe amid a relatively warmer spring. The ceasefire has also facilitated a less congested supply of LNG from the Middle East, helping to keep spot prices for LNG around the world at bay. This has kept Asia and Europe’s LNG import demand for the next few years high.

All eyes were on US inventory numbers and OPEC+ output decisions as we wait for signs of market movement. While the US-Iran ceasefire has removed the near-term supply shock, analysts stress that this ceasefire is still at a point of volatility.

Natural Gas Futures Tests $2.89 – Descending Channel Resistance

NG futures are trading at $2.889 on the 4-hour NYMEX timeframe, bouncing from $2.78 with bullish green candles pushing price back over the red MA near $2.83. The price is currently respecting the lower end of the descending white channel, as well as showing a bullish pattern from a Fibonacci confluence. The RSI has moved above 55 on the way up, indicating short-term momentum.

The higher-low structure continues to play out inside a short-term base, while the blue trendline offers modest support from below. On the upside, we are at the ceiling of the descending channel at $2.936. The volume has increased on the move up, indicating buying pressure. Above $2.81, the structure is more bullish, as it fights against the multi-week trend.

Trade Idea: Buy @ $2.889, Target $2.936, Stop $2.81.

WTI Crude Oil Reclaims $101 – Blue Channel Bounce Confirmed

WTI is trading at $101.23 on the 4-hour timeframe after a solid green candle formation helped push the price off the $99.60 bottom and back over the red 50-period MA, which sits just under $100.65. The price is currently trading within the blue ascending channel from mid-April, with the higher-lows framework still in play. Green bullish engulfing bodies have recently swept above the $100 pivot, and the RSI has moved up past 52 on the way up to show the trend has resumed strength.

The 38.2% Fib line at $100.65 is supported after the swing from the beginning of May; the next levels of resistance on the upside would be the high of $101.57, then the top of the blue channel between $103 and $105. The volume profile has shown that $100 is now the floor from which bids will come and supply will be eaten up. Above $99.60, the setup is bullish, in accordance with the midline of the channel.

Trade Idea: Buy @ $101.20, Target $103.00, Stop $100.00.

Brent Crude Oil Holds $106 – Ascending Channel Support Tested

Brent is trading at $105.96 on the 4-hour time frame after falling from $107.29 and testing the lower end of the blue ascending channel. Red candles have tested the 0.382 Fib at $103.26. Bullish rejection wicks indicate the support is being bought into near $106. The higher-lows pattern remains in place, while the red MA is now acting as dynamic support on the way back up. The RSI is hanging near 50 with the overall trend neutral and flat.

On the upside, there is the 0.5 Fib at $105.55, the channel resistance line above $107.85, and the volume-profile pivot near $107. The uptrend from April continues to be valid as long as the price stays above the $103.24 support area.

Trade Idea: Buy @ $105.95, Target $107.85, Stop $105.00.