Bitcoin Price Outlook: “Dot-Com-Like” Dollar Warning Poses 20% BTC Rally Setup

Bitcoin (BTC) may be setting up for a powerful rebound as the US dollar shows signs of a deeper structural decline, according to new analysis from RBC Capital Markets.

Bitcoin’s Falling Wedge Suggests 20% Upside

On the daily and weekly charts, Bitcoin is forming a falling wedge, a classic bullish reversal pattern that typically precedes strong upside breakouts.

The structure has guided BTC lower from its all-time high near $126,000 toward $103,000, where buyers are beginning to show signs of accumulation.

If confirmed, a breakout above the wedge’s resistance could trigger a 20% rally, initially targeting the $113,000 level (the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement) and, in a more extended move, the $123,700 region near the 0.786 Fib line.

This technical setup coincides with a potential macro tailwind: a looming correction in the US dollar.

RBC: Dollar Faces “Dot-Com-Like” Crash Risk

According to RBC Capital Markets, traders should brace for a protracted sell-off in the US dollar that could mirror the collapse following the 2000 internet bubble.

RBC’s chief FX strategist, Richard Cochinos, warned that the dollar’s recent support—largely fueled by global capital allocations into US equities and passive funds—could quickly evaporate once those drivers reverse.

“This concentration worked well in the past 15 years but poses risks in the current environment,” Cochinos wrote, adding:

“A measurable change in demand (and relative performance) can have profound implications in FX.”

He added that when capital diversified after the dot-com bust, the greenback suffered a 40% peak-to-trough decline from 2001 to 2008, a scenario that could repeat if global investors reduce their exposure to overpriced US assets.

DXY Breakdown Could Accelerate BTC Rally

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly time frame, indicating signs of exhaustion after failing to reclaim its 200-week exponential moving average, which is located near 101.5.

A breakdown from this formation could send DXY toward the 93.50 support zone, marking a 6–7% decline.

Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the dollar, now the most negative since early 2023, strengthens the bullish case.

Historically, dollar downtrends have coincided with major Bitcoin rallies, as weaker US dollar liquidity pushes global investors toward alternative assets.

If the DXY’s bearish scenario unfolds as RBC anticipates, it could ignite a renewed rotation into crypto, positioning Bitcoin for a 20% upside breakout in the weeks ahead.