Historical Volatility Index Analysis for Bitcoin
After gapping down from just above 80 in July to around 25 in August the Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BITMEX), volatility continues to decline breaking below 20 last week. Today the volatility index hit its lowest point in over a year at 18.83.
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See all Bitcoin forecastsThe last time we touched upon this level was in July of 2020 and unlike our current conditions, it only touched upon this low before shooting up the following week. The only other occurrence of volatility this low in our data (2017 – present) was in November 2018, when the index made its all-time low at 13.78.
Longest Period Below 30
Even though we are not at all-time lows in volatility it’s worth mentioning that this is the longest period below 30 on the Historical Vol. Index as we go into our 11th week of volatility below 30.
Historically the last two instances when we saw volatility this low (July 2020 & November 2018) Bitcoin was close to a bottom.
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