Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: BTC Eyes $75K Amid US-Iran Risks

My last week’s call was largely validated: Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim the $77,300–$78,000 resistance zone and slid into the projected $72,000–$74,000 support area, as renewed US-Iran tensions, sticky inflation risks, and weak spot-demand signals kept the rebound fragile.

At press time, Bitcoin was down roughly 3.75% while trading above the $74,000 support level.

Given these statistics, the cryptocurrency will most likely close the week in the red, its third in a row, reflecting growing uneasiness among crypto traders despite the US stock market hitting new record highs.

US–Iran Latest Update And Its Potential Impact on Bitcoin Market

As of Sunday, US–Iran talks appear closer to an interim framework than a final peace deal.

White House said “Donald Trump would only accept an agreement that “satisfies his redlines” and ensures Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon. Iran has sounded more cautious, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei saying progress had been made but no agreement was imminent.

Shane Smith travels to Tehran for a rare interview with Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, to discuss President Trump’s claims that Iran is “begging” for a deal.

Full episode on YouTube. pic.twitter.com/mK4FGSJSMQ

— VICE News (@VICENews) May 29, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz remains the key market risk: Washington says no country should be allowed to charge tolls, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Hormuz is open to all vessels “except those at war with us.”

Brent crude fell roughly 9.5% this week as traders priced in hopes of a US–Iran deal, while the S&P 500 rallied to a fresh record high on improving risk appetite and strength in AI-linked equities.

Bitcoin, however, failed to fully join the move. Traders remained cautious as the US–Iran ceasefire still looked fragile, the Strait of Hormuz dispute remained unresolved, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to see heavy outflows.

Rate expectations added another headwind.

Fed funds futures now imply a 62.8% probability of a rate hike by the March 2027 meeting, compared with a 37% chance of no change and just 0.2% odds of easing, according to CME FedWatch data.

That keeps Bitcoin vulnerable even as oil cools, because higher-for-longer policy expectations tend to pressure non-yielding risk assets and limit speculative demand.

Jobs Report Could Test Bitcoin’s Fragile Setup

Bitcoin traders will also watch next week’s US jobs report, though the data may only become market-moving if it delivers a major surprise. Consensus expectations are for payrolls to rise by roughly 95,000–105,000, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.3%.

A stronger-than-expected report would likely reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance and could add pressure on Bitcoin by lifting Treasury yields and rate-hike expectations.

A weaker print, however, may revive rate-cut bets and support a relief bounce, especially if it also cools concerns about sticky wage inflation.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Bounce Toward $75,000 Underway

Bitcoin is rebounding from the lower boundary of its descending channel near the $72,500–$73,000 support zone, signaling a short-term relief move after last week’s selloff.

The bounce has pushed BTC back toward $74,000, with the next upside target sitting near $75,000, close to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement and 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA, the red wave).

A break above that area could extend the recovery toward $76,300, but the broader setup remains cautious as BTC continues to trade inside the downward channel.