Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Can BTC Hold $77K as Fed, Iran Risks and PCE Data Collide?

In my previous weekly analysis, I had anticipated Bitcoin (BTC) to be volatile around the NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings release on May 22. We did get a 2.2% jump after the chipmaker reported an 86% year-on-year rise in revenue, only to be wiped entirely two days later after Kevin Warsh assumed the role of the next Federal Reserve chief.

I see this behavior as a sign of extreme bias-conflict among Bitcoin traders. The combination of better-than-expected NVIDIA earnings (yey), the election of a known hawkish Fed official as its chair (meh), and the continued US–Iran impasse (hmm) over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—the biggest driver of oil-linked global inflation for three months now—is leaving risk traders more confused than ever.

That may have been the reason why Bitcoin finished last week down 0.5%, despite moving sharply in both directions. That’s a market which does not know where to go next.

The conflict remains heading into the new week. Let’s examine.

Trump Says Iran War Will End “Very Quickly”

Bitcoin opened the new week on a firmer note, rising about 0.5% to around $77,680 on Monday as traders priced in tentative signs of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict.

US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran would end “very quickly,” while Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted “a little bit of movement” toward a possible peace deal between Washington and Tehran earlier on Monday.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that indirect negotiations over a potential deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran had seen “a little bit of movement, and that’s good.” Follow live updates below: https://t.co/b7Tzp3LGjM

— CBS Miami (@CBSMiami) May 22, 2026

Still, a final resolution appears far from certain.

Key sticking points remain, particularly Iran’s nuclear enrichment program and Tehran’s push for a tolling system over the Strait of Hormuz, which Washington has opposed as a threat to free navigation through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

Even so, investors appear to be focusing more on Trump’s Saturday remarks that the US and Iran had “largely negotiated” a memorandum of understanding that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of a prolonged energy shock that could keep inflation elevated and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Brent Crude dropped under $100 per barrel for the first time in over a month, while US yields on the 10- and 30-year bonds slipped alongside. That aligns with an improved appetite for crypto assets this week, including Bitcoin.

Hot PCE, Strong GDP May Cloud Bitcoin’s Recovery

On the economic front, traders will watch Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, alongside an updated reading on US economic growth.

Headline PCE is expected to accelerate toward 3.8% year over year, while core PCE is seen holding near 3.3%–3.4%, still well above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model points to a strong 4.3% annualized expansion in Q2, though the New York Fed’s nowcast is more cautious at 2.6%.

A hotter PCE print would strengthen the case for the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, especially if growth remains resilient. That could pressure risk assets like Bitcoin by lifting Treasury yields and reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts.

BEARISH ALERT! Binance Witnesses Bitcoin Inflows For 10 Days Straight

Binance has recorded nearly 10 straight days of net BTC inflows. Its weekly average inflows rose from 378 BTC on May 16 to 1,190 BTC, marking a more than threefold increase in less than two weeks.

The largest single-day inflow was over 3,600 BTC on May 18, according to data from CryptoQuant.

As a result, Binance’s BTC reserves have climbed from 616,000 BTC on April 24 to 632,000 BTC, an increase of 16,000 BTC in one month.

Rising exchange reserves are usually viewed as a bearish signal because investors often transfer BTC to exchanges when they plan to sell, take profits, or cut risk. That may turn out to be a bull trap signal for traders buying into the current BTC bounce.

That selling-pressure signal also aligns with weakening spot demand. Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand has fallen to around -147,000 BTC, its most negative level since the start of the year and the weakest reading since December 2025.

The metric suggests structural accumulation is no longer strong enough to absorb new supply, making any futures-led rebound look fragile unless spot buyers return.

Any signs of easing in Binance inflows and apparent demand may invalidate the bearish outlook.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Bear Flag Suggests Decline Toward $72,000

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the bear flag structure remains intact despite the latest rebound attempt.

BTC has slipped below the flag’s midline and is struggling near the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, suggesting sellers still control short-term momentum. The weak volume profile also shows limited conviction behind the bounce.

If BTC fails to reclaim the $77,300–$78,000 Fibonacci zone decisively, the pair may extend its pullback toward the flag’s lower trendline in the coming days.

That support aligns roughly with the $72,000–$74,000 area, near the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement range, where buyers may attempt another defense.