Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Weak Hands Selling BTC As Oil Holds Above $100

Bitcoin (BTC) has started this week on a positive note, responding to a sudden correction in oil prices following reports that G7 nations will release petroleum from reserves in the coming days.

The BTC/USD exchange rate jumped by over 3% to reach almost $68,500. Brent Oil slipped by more than 13% but was holding above $100, a psychological support mark.

Oil Pullback Offers Relief, But Iran Risk Still Dominates

President Donald Trump said he would not make a deal with Iran without “unconditional surrender,” underscoring the geopolitical tension still hanging over global markets.

Oil’s retreat has offered some relief to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, but the broader outlook remains highly uncertain. It is still unclear how long the Iran conflict will last, how elevated oil prices may remain, or how deeply the shock could ripple through inflation and growth expectations.

Under normal circumstances, this week’s key catalysts would include the CPI and PPI reports, along with major earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE). But for now, the Iran conflict and oil market volatility appear to be the dominant macro drivers, overshadowing the usual calendar events.

A similar pattern emerged in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, when the initial oil shock destabilized cryptocurrencies before markets gradually found their footing.

This time, too, Bitcoin may begin to stabilize once traders gain confidence that oil has reached a near-term peak, likely alongside credible signs of de-escalation with Iran. Until then, the backdrop remains fragile.

Binance Data Shows Weak Hands Selling During Oil Crisis

Binance data points to a split in Bitcoin investor behavior during the oil-driven market shock.

On March 7, short-term holders moved about 823 BTC to Binance, a sign that newer buyers may be preparing to sell or hedge amid rising volatility.

But at the same time, whale-to-exchange flows have moved the other way.

Since March 1, large-holder BTC inflows to Binance have dropped from roughly $8.8 billion to $6.6 billion, even as Bitcoin swung between $65,000 and $72,000.

In simple terms, weaker hands appear more reactive to the macro panic, while whales are not increasing sell-side pressure for now.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Beware of Bear Flag

Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation has painted what appears to be a bear flag structure.

A bear flag forms when the price consolidates inside a rising, parallel channel following a strong downtrend called a “flagpole.” Meanwhile, it typically resolves when the price falls below the lower trendline with a rise in trading volumes, and reaches the level at length equal to the flagpole’s height.

Applying the same technical rule to Bitcoin brings $51,000 as its primary downside target.

For now, BTC is attempting to bounce toward the upper trendline at around $73,250, aligning with the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave).