The Week Ahead: Traders Watch Geopolitics, Oil Prices and Key CPI, PCE Inflation Reports

Market Overview

U.S. equities ended lower last week as geopolitical tensions and weak labor data weighed on sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47,501.56, down -3.01% for the week. The S&P 500 finished at 6,740.02, falling -2.02%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined -1.24% to 22,387.68.

The selloff followed a sharp rise in oil prices after escalating conflict involving Iran. Energy prices surged more than 30%, raising concern that higher fuel costs could push inflation higher in the months ahead. At the same time, February payrolls surprised to the downside, with employment falling by 92,000 versus expectations for a gain of 55,000.

This combination of rising inflation risk and slowing hiring created a difficult backdrop for risk assets. Investors also reassessed the path of Federal Reserve policy, questioning whether the central bank will be willing to ease if energy prices push inflation higher.

Despite the pullback, the broader market trend remains constructive. The S&P 500 is still about 17% higher over the past year and sits roughly 3% below its record high, underscoring the strength of the longer-term uptrend.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on inflation data, Fed commentary, and several large earnings releases for direction.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Mar 9
Before the Open:
• BETA Technologies (BETA), est. -$0.52
• Korn/Ferry (KFY), est. $1.24

Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled

After the Close:
• Casey’s General (CASY), est. $2.99
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), est. $0.59
• LifeMD (LFMD), est. -$0.06
• Repay Holdings (RPAY), est. $0.21
• Vail Resorts (MTN), est. $6.17
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG), est. -$0.37
• Yext (YEXT), est. $0.14

Tuesday, Mar 10
Before the Open:
• ABM Industries (ABM), est. $0.87
• BioNTech (BNTX), est. -$0.16
• Kohl’s (KSS), est. $0.86
• Legend Biotech (LEGN), est. $0.00
• Nio (NIO), est. -$0.04
• Stagwell (STGW), est. $0.27
• United Natural Foods (UNFI), est. $0.51

Economic Releases:
• 11:00 GMT – NFIB Small Business Index, forecast 99.8 (prior 99.3)
• 13:15 GMT – ADP Employment Change, prior 12.8K
• 15:00 GMT – Existing Home Sales, forecast 3.89M (prior 3.91M)
• 20:30 GMT – API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

After the Close:
• Oracle (ORCL), est. $1.71
• AeroVironment (AVAV), est. $0.68
• Custom Truck One Source (CTOS), est. $0.07
• Franco-Nevada (FNV), est. $1.67

Wednesday, Mar 11
Before the Open:
• Almonty Industries (ALM), est. $0.00
• Campbell Soup (CPB), est. $0.57
• Sprinklr (CXM), est. $0.10

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core CPI m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
• 12:30 GMT – CPI m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
• 12:30 GMT – CPI y/y, forecast 2.5% (prior 2.4%)
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior 3.5M
• 17:01 GMT – 10-year Bond Auction
• 18:00 GMT – Federal Budget Balance, prior -94.6B

After the Close:
• Bumble (BMBL), est. $0.23
• Cadre Holdings (CDRE), est. $0.40
• Descartes (DSGX), est. $0.49
• Firefly Aerospace (FLY), est. -$0.68
• Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN), est. $0.27
• HighPeak Energy (HPK), est. -$0.04
• Netskope (NTSK), est. -$0.06
• Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), est. $0.02
• Stitch Fix (SFIX), est. -$0.05
• UiPath (PATH), est. $0.26

Thursday, Mar 12
Before the Open:
• Alliance Laundry Systems (ALH), est. $0.23
• BRP (DOO), est. $1.46
• Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), est. $2.99
• Li Auto (LI), est. $0.21
• Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), est. $1.39
• Sleep Number (SNBR), est. -$0.50
• TIC Solutions (TIC), est. $0.06

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 216K (prior 213K)
• 12:30 GMT – Building Permits, forecast 1.41M (prior 1.45M)
• 12:30 GMT – Housing Starts, forecast 1.34M (prior 1.40M)
• 12:30 GMT – Trade Balance, forecast -66.1B (prior -70.3B)
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior -132B
• 17:01 GMT – 30-year Bond Auction

After the Close:
• Adobe (ADBE), est. $5.86
• EverCommerce (EVCM), est. $0.05
• Green Dot (GDOT), est. -$0.10
• KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC), est. $0.09
• Lennar (LEN), est. $0.95
• Mission Produce (AVO), est. $0.07
• PagerDuty (PD), est. $0.24
• Rubrik (RBRK), est. -$0.11
• SentinelOne (S), est. $0.06
• ServiceTitan (TTAN), est. $0.18

Friday, Mar 13
Before the Open:
• Buckle (BKE), est. $1.51

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core PCE Price Index m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior 0.4%)
• 12:30 GMT – Prelim GDP q/q, forecast 1.4% (prior 1.4%)
• 12:30 GMT – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior 1.0%)
• 12:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior -1.4%)
• 12:30 GMT – Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, forecast 3.6% (prior 3.6%)
• 12:30 GMT – Personal Income m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior 0.3%)
• 12:30 GMT – Personal Spending m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.4%)
• 15:00 GMT – JOLTS Job Openings, forecast 6.84M (prior 6.54M)
• 15:00 GMT – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, forecast 55.9 (prior 56.6)
• 15:00 GMT – Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, prior 3.4%

After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Central Bank Activity

Wednesday: Michelle Bowman (Federal Reserve Governor) – 12:30 GMT
Thursday: Michelle Bowman (Federal Reserve Governor) – 15:00 GMT

Markets will monitor Bowman’s remarks for signals on how policymakers are weighing the recent oil price spike against softer labor data. Any comments suggesting inflation concerns could delay rate cuts may influence Treasury yields and equity positioning.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 47,501.56 (-3.01%), support at 45,728.93, 45,452.03, 45,280.08 (52-Week SMA), resistance at 50,512.79.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 22,387.68 (-1.24%), support at 21,898.29, 21,154.04 (52-Week SMA), 20,560.17 and 19,334.98, resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,740.02 (-2.02%), support at 6,521.92, 6,379.44 (52-Week SMA), 6,360.58 and 6,212.69, resistance at 7,002.28.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact primary uptrend.

Outlook

Inflation will be the central theme this week. Wednesday’s CPI report will give the first indication of whether rising energy prices are beginning to feed into broader consumer prices.

Friday’s Core PCE report and consumer sentiment data will then provide further insight into inflation trends and household confidence. Rising gasoline prices tied to the Middle East conflict could influence inflation expectations and consumer spending behavior.

Earnings will also play a role. Oracle reports Tuesday after the close, followed by several major names on Thursday including Adobe, Lennar, and Ulta Beauty. These results could influence both the technology and consumer sectors as markets balance macro uncertainty with corporate fundamentals.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.