BTC Fear & Greed Index Climbs Higher Despite a Bearish NASDAQ Session

Bob Mason
Updated: Nov 30, 2022, 08:06 UTC

BTC joined the broader crypto market in positive territory on Monday, decoupling from the NASDAQ. Fed Chair Powell could sour the mood later.

BTC tech analysis - FX Empire

Key Insights:

  • On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.48% to end the day at $16,452.
  • Risk aversion stemming from protests in China eased, supporting BTC and the broader crypto market.
  • However, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 26/100 to 29/100, reflecting bullish investor sentiment and further signs of a bottoming out.

On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.48%. Reversing a 1.36% loss from Monday, BTC ended the day at $16,452. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the seventh consecutive day while ending a five-day losing streak.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $16,101. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $15,980, BTC rose to a mid-morning high of $16,545. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,465 before a pullback to sub-$16,400. However, a bullish end to the session saw BTC retest R1 before easing back.

Investor jitters over China’s zero-COVID policy eased, delivering BTC price support. On Tuesday, the Hang Seng Index rallied by 5.24%, with the CSI300 gaining 3.09% as investors bet on China easing lockdown measures.

US economic indicators were also crypto-friendly as FTX contagion risk eased further. In November, the CB Consumer Confidence Index fell from 102.2 to 100.2, supporting the bets of a December Fed pivot.

However, while investors brushed aside the news of BlockFi filing for bankruptcy, the NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 0.59%. Investor apprehension ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech left the Index in negative territory.

Later today, the US economic calendar will continue to draw interest, with ADP nonfarm employment change, Q3 GDP, and JOLTs job openings in the spotlight. The labor market numbers will likely have more influence ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech.

Fed Chair Powell could have the final say, with talk of another 75-basis point rate hike likely to weigh on BTC and the broader market.

This morning, the NASDAQ mini was up 8.50 points, while BTC and the broader crypto market were in breakout mode.

NASDAQ decouples ahead of Powell.
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 301122 5 Minute Chart

The Fear & Greed Index Nears 30/100 Despite NASDAQ Composite Fall

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index rose from 26/100 to 29/100. A bullish crypto session supported a continued upward trend, with the Index targeting the Neutral zone.

This week, the Fear & Greed Index has provided further signs of a possible bottoming out. Investors brushed aside the news of BlockFi filing for bankruptcy and rebounded sharply from the China protest-fueled sell-off on Monday.

Avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key near-term. The bulls will need to target the pre-FTX collapse high of 40/100 (Nov 6) to support a BTC run at $20,000.

Fear & Greed Index sends bullish signals.
Fear & Greed 301122

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 2.76% to $16,906. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rally from an early low of $16,446 to a high of $16,956.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,631 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,810.

BTC on the move.
BTCUSD 301122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid a fall through R1 and the $16,366 pivot to target the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $17,254. A return to $17,000 would signal an extended breakout session. However, BTC would need US stats, Fed Chair Powell, and friendly FTX-linked news updates to avoid a reversal.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test resistance at $18,000 before any pullback.

A fall through the Major Resistance Levels and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,187 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $15,922. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,478.

BTC resistance levels in play.
BTCUSD 301122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a more bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $16,799. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA flattening on the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A return to $17,000 would bring R3 ($17,254) and the 200-day EMA ($17,550) into play. However, a fallback through R2 ($16,810) and the 100-day EMA (16,799) would bring R1 ($16,631) and the 50-day EMA ($16,477) into view.

EMAs turning bullish.
BTCUSD 301122 4 Hourly Chart

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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