BTC Fear Index Holds Steady on Range-Bound BTC and NASDAQ Sessions

Key Insights:

• On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.01%, marking the fifth gain from thirteen sessions.
• An eventless session left BTC range-bound through most of the day. Regulatory chatter and FTX grabbed the crypto headlines.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 23/100. Both BTC and the NASDAQ Composite Index ended the day flat.

On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.01%. Following a 0.17% gain from Thursday, BTC ended the day at $16,685. Notably, BTC logged the fifth gain from thirteen sessions while falling short of $17,000 for the third time since 2020.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,977. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,809 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,934 before hitting the reverse.

The reversal saw BTC fall to a late afternoon low of $16,546. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,484, However, late crypto market support reversed losses from the session.

Regulatory chatter pegged BTC back from a return to $17,000. US, UK, and Australian regulators have been vocal since the collapse of FTX, raising the fear of draconian-style regulations.

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) proposed to ban crypto platforms this week.

While regulatory chatter drew interest, a quiet US economic calendar also left the NASDAQ Composite Index flat for the session.

The Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady Alongside BTC and the NASDAQ

Today, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 23/100. While FTX contagion risk lingered, a lack of negative crypto market news left BTC and the Index flat for the session. It was also a quiet day on the US economic calendar, allowing investors to take a breather after the recent market turmoil.

BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for a fourth consecutive session, further supporting a possible price bottom. However, investor sentiment will likely remain FTX-linked contagion news dependent over the near term.

Barring adverse news, an Index return to the Fear zone would signal a BTC return to $20,000. However, the Index would need to avoid sub-20/100 to support an Index return to 40 and a move into the neutral zone. A fall to sub-20/100 would see BTC face the risk of sub-$10,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.09% to $16,670. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,688 before falling to a low of $16,668.

Technical Indicators

A move through the $16,736 pivot would target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,926 and the Friday high of $16,977. A breakout from R1 and a return to $17,000 would signal a bullish session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $17,167. Crypto news updates need to be BTC-friendly to support a return to $17,000.

The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,598.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,495 into play. Barring another extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,305 should limit the downside. However, negative FTX-related news could bring sub-$16,000 into play.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,874.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $17,057. The 50-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($16,926) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($17,057) and R2 ($17,167). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave S1 ($16,495) in view.