Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – December 7, 2016 Forecast

February Comex Gold futures are drifting lower early Wednesday. The market is being pressured by a slightly better U.S. Dollar and firmer equity indexes. A weak dollar may underpin the market, but any gains will be limited by rising stock prices. Although the market is oversold according to many technical indicators, it is not likely to rally much unless there is a steep break in the U.S. equity markets.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The market is far from turning the main trend to up. We could see a closing price reversal bottom if sellers take out $1158.60 and the market closes higher.

The short-term range is $1158.60 to $1190.20. Its 50% level or pivot is controlling the direction of the market.

The main range is $1236.10 to $1158.60. If there is a strong rally then its retracement zone at $1197.40 to $1206.50 will become the primary upside target.

The long-term range is $1055.20 to $1387.10. Its retracement zone is $1221.20 to $1182.00. The market is currently trading on the bearish side of this retracement zone. Aggressive counter-trend buyers are trying to drive the market back into this zone.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1169.80, the direction of the gold market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot price at $1174.40.

A sustained move under $1174.40 will signal the presence of sellers. This could eventually lead to a break into Monday’s low at $1158.60. There is no support under this price until $1055.20. Only the bottom-pickers are preventing this market from completely breaking down.

A sustained move over $1174.40 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could generate the upside momentum needed to test the downtrending angle at $1180.10. This is followed by the major Fib at $1182.00.

Overtaking this price could trigger an acceleration to the upside with potential targets at $1190.20 and $1197.40.

The bias is still to the downside. Investor sentiment will change quickly to up only if the stock indexes break hard.

Gold Fundamental Forecast