February Comex Gold futures are trending higher shortly before the regular session opening. Traders have been buying gold as a hedge against uncertainty over Trump’s ability to run a government. We’re expecting to see volatility when Trump holds his first press conference since he was elected. The news conference is tentatively scheduled. Some traders are saying it will be held at 1600 GMT, others at 1800 GMT.
Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend turn up on Tuesday when gold prices crossed $1190.20.
The main range is $1236.10 to $1124.30. Its retracement zone at $1180.20 to $1193.40 is currently being tested. The near-term direction of the market is likely to be determined by trader reaction to this zone.
The 52-week retracement zone is $1182.00 to $1221.20. The combination of the two zones makes $1182.00 to $1180.20 key support.
It also shows that taking out $1193.40 could drive the market into $1121.20.
If a short-term range forms between $1124.30 and $1191.50, then its retracement zone at $1157.90 to $1150.00 will become the primary downside target. Taking out $1180.20 could trigger an acceleration into this area.
Forecast
Based on the current price at $1188.40, I’m looking for an upside bias if $1193.40 is taken out with conviction. This is followed closely by a downtrending angle at $1199.10. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into $1217.60 to $1221.20.
Look for a strong downside bias if $1180.20 is taken out with big volume behind it. This could trigger a steep break because the next downside targets come in at $1158.30 and $1157.90.
A lot can happen today so you have to make sure you have volume on your side when buying strength or selling weakness, or you are likely to be whipsawed during the session
