Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – March 9, 2017 Forecast

April Comex Gold futures continue to lose ground on Thursday as investors adjust their positions to the strong possibility of a Fed interest rate hike next week. Investors are also expressing concerns that Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report may be strong enough to warrant another rate hike in June.

I think the rate hike on March 15 is a given. The unknown at this time is the number of times the Fed will raise rates in 2017. Although the Fed forecast three rate hikes this year, no one really believed them. However, with the odds of a June hike sitting at over 50%, the price action in the gold market suggests they do now.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The next downside target is the January 27 main bottom at $1182.60. Today is the eight day down from the $1264.90 main top which puts it in the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The short-term range is $1182.60 to $1264.90. Its retracement zone is $1223.80 to $1214.00. This zone is now resistance.

The main range is $1227.20 to $1264.90. If the downside momentum continues then we could see a test of its retracement zone at $1196.10 to $1179.80 within 1 to 2 trading sessions.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1203.30, the direction of the gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep downtrending angle at $1200.90.

Holding above $1200.90 may indicate the selling is slowing. This could trigger a late short-covering rally into $1214.00.

Crossing to the weak side of the angle at $1200.90 will put gold in a bearish position with $1196.10 the next target. The daily chart begins to open up to the downside with a price cluster at $1182.60 to $1183.20 the next downside target, followed by the major Fibonacci level at $1179.80.