Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – November 11, 2015 Forecast

December Comex High Grade Copper futures drifted lower on Wednesday despite the weaker U.S. Dollar and after China released mixed data showing growth is slowing. China’s October industrial production growth fell to 5.6 percent year-on-year, slightly lower than the 5.8 percent gain economists had estimated. Helping to soften the impact of the slower production growth was a just-above-forecast 11 percent jump in retail sales.

Also weighing on prices is the potential impact of a December interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve and more stimulus from the European Central Bank.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The nearest swing top and change in trend point is at 2.3620. Today’s session begins with copper down 23 days from the October 9 top and down 5 days from the November 4 top. This puts it in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. If this chart pattern forms, it won’t mean that the trend is changing to up, but it is more likely to fuel the start of a short-term retracement. This move is needed to alleviate the oversold conditions.

The nearest downside target is the April 28, 2009 main bottom at 2.1740. This is followed closely by a steep downtrending angle at 2.1620. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the market in an extremely bearish position.

The nearest upside target is a downtrending angle at 2.2620. This angle has been guiding the market lower since the 2.3620 main top on November 4.

There are no key pivots to watch today. Sellers are still in control and I don’t think buyers will be interested in stopping the current slide until copper tests 2.1740. The buyers are likely to be profit-takers rather than bottom-pickers.