Comex High Grade Copper Price Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – $3.0465 is Possible Trigger Point for Steep Drop

Copper prices fell last week before rallying enough late in the week to settle slightly better. The volatile two-sided price action was fueled by the movement in the U.S. Dollar and uncertainty over President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum.

May Comex High Grade Copper futures settled at $3.1360, up $0.0115 or +0.37%.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the top at $3.335 the week-ending December 29.

A trade through the main bottom at $3.0465 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. If this move generates enough downside momentum, we could see an eventual test of the next main bottom at $2.9585.

The main range is $2.9585 to $3.3335. Its retracement zone is $3.1460 to $3.1020. The market has straddled this zone four out of five weeks. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $3.0465 to $3.2905. Its 50% level or pivot at $3.1685 provided resistance last week.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at $3.1360 and the price action, the direction of the copper market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at $3.1460.

A sustained move under $3.1460 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a test of the main Fibonacci level at $3.1020. Last week, sellers took out this level, but quickly regained it into the close. If the selling pressure increases this week then we could see a move into $3.0465.

Look for a possible acceleration to the downside if $3.0465 fails as support. This could drive the market into $2.9585.

A sustained move over $3.1460 will signal the presence of buyers. This could drive the market into $3.1685. This price is a possible trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

The direction of the dollar this week is likely to have a big influence on copper prices. The price action in the dollar will likely be dictated by the results of the U.S. consumer inflation report.