Comex High Grade Copper Price Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – Main Trend Up, But Rangebound; Big Move Coming

Based on Friday’s price action, the direction of the July Comex High Grade Copper futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $3.0885.
James Hyerczyk
Copper Scrap Wire
Copper Scrap Wire

A stronger U.S. Dollar helped drive copper prices down on Friday. The greenback rose in reaction to a steep plunge in crude oil futures which drove down demand across the board for dollar-denominated copper.

Losses were likely limited by expectations of increased demand later this year and forecasts of a supply deficit by the end of the year.

On Friday, July Comex High Grade Copper settled at $3.0775, down $0.0185 or -0.60%.

Daily July Comex High Grade Copper

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $3.1485 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through $3.0345.

Copper has been rangebound the entire month of May because of the mixed fundamentals and the lack of hedge fund interest.

The main range is $2.9585 to $3.2180. Its retracement zone is $3.0885 to $3.0575. The market straddled this zone all week.

The short-term range is $3.2180 to $3.0140. Its retracement zone at $3.1160 to $3.1400 has been acting like resistance. Additional resistance is the long-term 50% level at $3.1315. Copper took out this zone early last week, but the rally failed at $3.1485.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action, the direction of the July Comex High Grade Copper futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $3.0885.

A sustained move under $3.0885 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could drive the market into the main Fib level at $3.0575. If it fails, sellers will run into a series of lows and bottoms at $3.0485, $3.0345 and $3.0140. Look out to the downside if $3.0140 fails. The daily chart indicates the next potential downside target is $2.9585.

A sustained move over $3.0885 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a spike into a pair of 50% levels at $3.1160 and $3.1315 and a short-term Fib level at $3.1400.

Taking out last week’s high at $3.1485 could trigger an acceleration to the upside. The daily chart indicates there is room to run to $3.1890 and $3.2180.

The longer copper stays in the range, the bigger the move once traders determine a direction.

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