Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 10, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Aug 7, 2015, 10:25 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil edged up 40 cents in the session to trade at 45.06 as Brent Oil battled with its resistance level at $50. The

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 10, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil edged up 40 cents in the session to trade at 45.06 as Brent Oil battled with its resistance level at $50. The commodity found support at the 50 level but broke through which has not become its resistance line as oil is having a difficult time recovering above the resistance line.

Crude oil futures traded higher after setting multi-month lows in the previous session, with investors awaiting US jobs numbers later in the day and Chinese trade data over the weekend.

Despite the gains both of the main oil benchmarks are heading for declines of nearly five per cent this week, holding to the longest string of weekly losses since the turn of the year.

US jobs data on Friday may give a strong pointer on when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years. The Fed meets in mid-September and markets are split between a hike next month or a delay until December.

The jobs number will likely impact the dollar which in turn will affect oil, said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “There’s also China’s trade data on the weekend, which is an increasingly important number for the markets,” he said. “I think what happens there will set the near term direction.”

Besides global oversupply, the other primary factor pushing down crude prices from this year’s peaks in May has been worry about the state of China’s oil demand as its economy slows.

The contract is heading for a sixth week of decline, the most it has fallen in a row since dropping for seven weeks between November and January. It is down 4.9 per cent this week, the biggest weekly loss in two.

The European crude is down about 4.7 per cent this week; the biggest weekly fall since March. It is heading for a sixth week of declines, the longest streak since the turn of the year when the market was in free-fall.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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This Week in Petroleum
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Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
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Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Home Loans (MoM) (Jun)	4.4%	5.0%	-7.3%
AUD	RBA Monetary Policy Statement
CHF	Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Jul)	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%
CHF	Unemployment Rate (Jul)	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%
EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.4%	0.3%	0.2%
EUR	German Trade Balance (Jun)	24.0B	21.5B	19.5B
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
GBP	Trade Balance (Jun)		-9.30B	-8.00B
GBP	Trade Balance Non-EU (Jun)		-2.40B	-1.57B

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 10, 2015

	Event	Previous
JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Jul)		51
JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Jul)		53.5
USD	Labor Market Conditions Index (Jul)		0.8
NZD	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)		0.5%
NZD	Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY)		5%
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor – All (YoY)		1.8%