Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 6, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil added 10 cents but has remained flat since early in the Asian session and is trading at 46.42 while Brent Oil added 24 cents to 48.83. The spread remains dangerously close at less than $2.40.

Oil prices were being closely watched after a rally in the previous session but seasoned market watchers say investor optimism of a rally is unfounded – for now.

On Tuesday, the price of benchmark Brent crude and U.S. sweet crude for December delivery closed more than 3 percent higher, at $50.54 and $47.90 respectively, after having surged more than 4 percent at one point in the trading session. Prices were supported by fears of supply disruptions in Brazil and Libya, following a strike at state-run oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro and the closure of a Libyan oil export terminal.

Adding further pressure was an internal OPEC document published by Reuters that showed weaker demand in the next few years for oil from the producer group, even as Saudi Arabia pumped near record levels to protect its market share.

Earlier this week, oil workers’ strike in Brazil, the ninth biggest global producer, that began on Sunday cut around half a million barrels of output in the first 24 hours and has slowed state-run Petrobras’ daily oil output by around 25 percent, according to the workers’ union In Libya, the export terminal at the eastern port of Zueitina was closed and force majeure has been declared on crude oil loadings.

Aside from the build in U.S. stockpiles, there is still no sign that production is slowing from major oil producers such as OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Despite a sharp decline in oil prices from a high of $114 a barrel in June 2014 to their current level, OPEC, which is led by Saudi Arabia, has refused to cut production levels (which would support prices) and has regularly exceeded its 30 million barrels a day ceiling.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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This Week in Petroleum
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Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
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Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 6, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction