Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 21, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gave back earlier gains to trade in the green by 18 cents at 82.25 while Brent Oil eased by 9 points to touch 86.07. API crude oil inventories rose by 10.2 million barrels for the week ending on 10th October 2014. Gasoline stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels whereas distillate inventories fell by 0.156 million barrels for the same time period. The EIA released its weekly inventories report last week and US crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels for the week ending on 10th Oct 2014. Gasoline stocks rose by 4 million barrels. Crude oil prices traded lower last week extending a run of losses on concerns over weak oil demand as equity markets tumbled and economic gloom spread.  Concerns over growing oil supply, falling global equities exerted downside pressure Growth concern in global economy, slow demand from Asia, inventory buildup in the US further added pressure.

A downward revision in global oil demand for 2015 by the International Energy Agency further depressed the market. China’s inflation rate slowed more than expected in September to a near five-year low, adding to concerns that global growth is cooling fast unless governments take bolder measures to shore up their economies.

Traders can expect crude oil prices to trade lower as crude markets remain amply supplied and this factor will be a drag to oil prices .Lower forecast of oil demand by the IEA will lead to global prices slump acting as a negative factor. Besides, OPEC is continuing its production constant despite the fall in prices. Lower growth in the world economy and sputtering environment in the Euro-zone will act as a negative factor for prices. Meanwhile, money managers have declined their long side bets on crude last week which might push prices lower in this week also. In the international markets, crude prices are expected to trade lower towards $77 mark.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
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Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
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Weekly Petroleum Status Report
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Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 21 10:30 Spain 3 & 9M T-bill auction

Oct 21 11:00 Finland Maximum Eur 1bn 2.75% Jul 2028 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 Norway Nok 3bn 3% Mar 2024 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 UK GBP 3bn 2.75% Sep 2024 Gilt

Oct 21 12:30 ESM Up to Eur 1bn 6M T-bills (Apr 2015)

Oct 22 11:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction