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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil bounced around today with little direction to trade at 82.39 down by 10 cents while Brent Oil added 15 cents to

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil bounced around today with little direction to trade at 82.39 down by 10 cents while Brent Oil added 15 cents to reach 86.37 as the spread widened to the $4 safety range. Oil prices slipped Wednesday after enjoying a recent upturn in line with a global equities rebound, while analysts said investors will now be keeping an eye on the US Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting.

However, oversupply and lingering concerns about demand in key markets are capping gains and keeping prices at multi-year lows. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said that the ministry believes oil prices will rebound to between $90 per barrel to $110 per barrel in the medium-term and long-term, Interfax reported Wednesday.

Oil is currently trading at around $86 per barrel making the dent to the already flagging Russian economy which relies heavily on revenues from oil and gas. Oil prices should begin trading within the $90 per barrel-$110 per barrel range again, which is “optimal” for both producers and consumers, in the medium-term and long-term, he said speaking at an oil and gas forum in Moscow.

What’s driving crude prices lower is slowing demand in the face of growing U.S. tight oil production and the return of 500 mb/d of Libyan crude oil to global markets since July. Markets have known and discounted tight oil production from the U.S., which will add roughly a million barrels a day of crude oil production this year and next, but the resumption of Libyan exports has hit the market just as the International Energy Agency has been lowering oil demand forecasts for 2014 and 2015. The result is a fear of oversupply, leading to lower prices.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Exports (YoY) (Sep)

6.9%

6.8%

-1.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

-958B

-777B

-949B

 

 

  AUD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q3)

0.5%

0.4%

0.5%

 

 

  AUD

 

CPI (YoY) (Q3)

2.3%

2.3%

3.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.2%

-0.1%

 

 

  CAD

 

BoC Monetary Policy

 

 

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

1.00%

1.00%

 

 

Brent Oil(15 minutes)20141022115420
Crude Oil(15 minutes)20141022115357

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

RBA Governor Stevens

 

 

 

 

 

  NZD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q2)

 

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Mfg. PMI

 

50.2

50.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Mfg PMI

 

49.5

49.9

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI

 

55.0

55.7

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI

 

49.9

50.3

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (Sep)  

 

52.0

52.4

 

 

  GBP

 

BBA Mortgage

 

41.5K

41.6K

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

 

-0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

-0.1%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends

 

-4

-4

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

282K

264K

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

 

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