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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 3, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 22:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil took a big hit today falling $1.07 to trade at 89.66 while Brent Oil dropped alongside crude to trade at 93.06

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 3, 2014 Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 3, 2014 Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 3, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil took a big hit today falling $1.07 to trade at 89.66 while Brent Oil dropped alongside crude to trade at 93.06 down by $1.10 as the world glut of oil continued. Oil hit its lowest in almost a year and a half.  Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI contracts, increased by 315,000 barrels to 20.5 million last week, the Energy Information Administration reported. There’s no sense of urgency within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce output even as the global market is oversupplied, according to Morgan Stanley. Saudi Arabia reduced the price for Arab Light to Asia by $1 a barrel to a discount of $1.05 to the average of Oman and Dubai crude, the lowest since December 2008. Official selling prices, or OSPs, are regional adjustments Aramco makes to price formulas to compete against oil from other countries.

The price reduction followed a cut of 408,000 barrels a day in Saudi production in August to 9.6 million a day, according to data the country submitted to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The kingdom will maintain output at that level until the end of the year, a person familiar with its policy said Sept. 26.

Crude inventories in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, decreased by 1.36 million barrels to 356.6 million in the week ended Sept. 26, said the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm. Supplies were forecast to gain by 1.5 million, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of eight analysts.

Gasoline stockpiles shrank by 1.84 million barrels to 208.5 million last week, the data showed. That’s the lowest since November 2012. Distillates, including heating oil and diesel, fell by 2.89 million to 125.7 million. WTI dropped 13 percent in the July-September period while Brent slid 16 percent, the most in nine quarters. The declines are probably “still too limited in magnitude and duration to cause a rapid response” from OPEC, Morgan Stanley said in a report yesterday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Building Approvals

3.0%

1.0%

2.1%

 

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance

-0.787B

-0.700B

-1.075B

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish Unemployment

19.7K

31.3K

8.1K

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Sep)

64.2

63.5

64.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

0.05%

0.05%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

297K

293K

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Factory Orders (MoM)

 

-9.3%

10.5%

 

Crude Oil(15 minutes)20141002114906

Brent Oil(15 minutes)20141002114927
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Sep)

 

59.1

60.5

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

 

215K

142K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate

 

6.1%

6.1%

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Non-Mfg. PMI

 

58.5

59.6

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 02 08:30 Spain Auctions 1.4% Jan 2020 & 2.75% Oct 2024 Obligations

Oct 02 08:50 France Eur 7-8bn 1.75% May 2023, 1.75% Nov 2024 & 2.75% Oct 2027

Oct 02 15:00 US Announces details of 3/10Y Note & 30Y bond auctions on Oct

Oct 07 06:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Oct 08

Oct 07 09:00 Norway Bond auction

Oct 07 09:15 Austria RAGB auction

Oct 07 9:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Oct 07 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 10

Oct 07 17:00 US 3Y Note auction

Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction

Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)

Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction

Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction

Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction

 

 

 

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