Crude Oil forecast for the week of August 10, 2015, Technical Analysis
Light Sweet Crude
The light sweet crude market broke down during the course of the week testing the $44 level. Because of this, it looks as if the market is ready to continue to go lower, the most recent low on the longer-term charts being the $42 handle. With this, we feel that the market will test that Lisa that level, if not lower than that. Ultimately, we think it every time this market rallies there will be sellers involved. With this, we have absolutely no scenario in which we are willing to buy the crude oil market. Ultimately, we think that the market will eventually find buyers somewhere below, but we have no interest in buying this market until we see a supportive candle in a longer-term chart such as the monthly timeframe.
Brent markets broke below the $50 level during the course of the week, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant number. Ultimately, we believe that the market is probably going to head down to the $45 level, and that any rally at this point in time will more than likely be a selling opportunity. We think that the $54 level above is going to be the massive barrier for buyers to get over, and at this point in time we feel very much the same as we do in the light sweet crude market, that we need to see a longer-term buy signal that suggests a trend change.
Granted, this trend is a little long in the tooth at the moment, but quite frankly there is just simply no bit in this market at all. With that, we believe that the bears will continue to run this market going forward as the bearishness is just simply far too strong at the moment. The time of the year does very little to encourage buyers as well, as the liquidity simply isn’t going to be strong enough for a trend reversal at this moment in time. However, we do expect markets to jump around from time to time.