Crude Oil Price Analysis for March 22, 2017

Crude is settled lower by 1.5%, but was down intra-day better than $1.00 per barrel. Selling has been prompted by a fairly serious bout of risk-off, as yields head lower, and equities in the U.S. posts its worst numbers of the year. The next risk event will be the weekly API inventory data, due after the close, where the market expects a 2.5 million barrel stock build. Last week analysts expected a build and received an unexpected draw.

Trend Line Support Looms Large

Prices were able to bounce near support at an upward sloping trend line at 47.30 and a break of that level would lead to a test of another upward sloping trend line that comes in near 45.60.  Momentum moved lower as the RSI (relative strength index) broke back below the 30-oversold trigger level.  If the RSI cannot break below the lows at 25, a divergence could be set up near trend line support.  Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 48.63.