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Crude Oil Price Analysis – WTI Bounces Off 50-Day EMA as Strikes Pause

By: 
Christopher Lewis

The oil markets are reacting to the cessation of missiles flying over the last day or so.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil futures daily chart showing price at 84.33 above the 50-EMA at 82.67 and the 200-EMA at 78.83, below the 113.33 level.
WTI crude trades at 84.33, easing back after a sharp rally off the July low near $70. Source: TradingView

The Light Sweet Crude Oil market has fallen precipitously at the open on Monday, testing the 50-day EMA rather quickly as traders react to the fact that the United States has pared down its strikes at least in the short term, and the Iranians are looking to do much the same. Nonetheless, we still have a situation where the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at levels not seen in 40 years because so much has been drawn out of it, and one would have to wonder whether or not that influences the market sooner or later. That being said, we’ve seen this movie before, and to believe that suddenly peace is going to break out would be to overlook a lot of different things. The headlines in the Middle East will continue to move these markets.

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Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent crude futures daily chart showing price at 90.94 above the 50-EMA at 87.70 and the 200-EMA at 83.54, having pulled back from the 100.00 level.
Brent crude trades at 90.94, retreating from the $100 level while holding above both moving averages. Source: TradingView

Brent markets have also fallen apart, only to turn around and show signs of life again in an environment that, quite frankly, looks very much the same, testing the 50-day EMA before bouncing. Whether or not that actually plays out that way and it finds that as a floor remains to be seen, but clearly, at this point in time, we’re just moving on the latest headlines. Anytime there’s a headline in one direction or the other as far as tension is concerned, oil markets jump or collapse, take your pick.

I just don’t see how that changes anytime soon. And with that being the case, it’s very difficult to get aggressive and practice any type of risk appetite or risk management in your account, so a very difficult market to trade in. We’ve been all over the place already during the session, and we still are just now getting ready to see Wall Street open up. So with that, I expect a bumpy ride. This is a market where volatility is picking up, not dropping.

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About the Author

Christopher LewisSenior Analyst

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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