Crude Oil Price Forecast: Third Test at 20-Day Support Holds

Support Test Continues

Crude oil spent a third consecutive day on Thursday successfully testing support at the 20-day average. Today’s low of $59.96 landed right near both the 20-day line and the 10-day average at $60.08, which is now rising and on the verge of crossing above the 20-day — a fresh sign of building strength. While the pattern of lower daily highs and lower lows persisted, today’s decline was minor, showing buyers are actively defending this key zone.

Weekly Bullish Foundation

Last week delivered a decisive breakout from a small falling channel, forming a powerful weekly bullish engulfing candle that closed near the top of the $56.41-$63.03 range. This strong weekly structure reflects real buyer commitment, and with only one leg up completed so far, the setup strongly favors a second leg higher once the current pullback — now in progress — finds a base.

Inside Week Formation

This week has traded entirely within last week’s range, setting up a classic inside week unless prices push above $63.03 before the week ends. A close in the top half of today’s range would form a potential bull hammer right at the confluence of the 10-day and 20-day averages, near the 50% retracement zone — a textbook reversal setup. A rally above today’s high would trigger a daily breakout, with added conviction on a move above Wednesday’s $61.37 high.

Upside Targets Defined

The recent lower swing high at $63.03 (B) stalled at the 50-day average. That line, now at $62.37 and still falling slightly, stands as the first short-term upside target. A clean break above it would open the door to retest $63.03, and if that level gives way, it signals continuation of a measured move starting from today’s low — matching the length of last week’s initial advance, assuming $59.96 holds as the pullback bottom.

Measured Move Potential

Two ABCD patterns point to higher levels: a 78.6% harmonic target at $65.17, followed by the prior swing high at $66.77. A rally through $66.77 would trigger a full bullish reversal of the decline from June’s $78.44 peak, confirming a shift in momentum and stronger underlying demand.

Outlook

The close above $59.96 is critical. A move above $61.37 fuels a push to $62.37, while a break lower risks retesting support. The inside week and hammer formation favor bulls if $63.03 clears. Watch for 50-day confirmation — $65.17 and $66.77 follow on sustained strength. Today’s defense at support keeps the second-leg up scenario alive.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.