Crude Oil Price Update – Close Under $33.49 Could Trigger Start of Near-Term Correction

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to its highest level since April 9 on Thursday, supported by two weeks of lower crude inventories, OPEC and US production cuts and signs of a pick-up in demand due to the relaxing of coronavirus-related lockdowns and restrictions.

“Global supply has been curtailed to a great degree,” said Rystad Energy analyst Paola Rodriguez Masiu.  “We are on a clear path to a gradual recovery now.”

OPEC, Russia and other major producers, known as OPEC+, agreed to cut supply by a record 9.7 million barrels per day from May 1. So far in May, OPEC+ has cut oil exports by about 6 million bpd, according to companies that track the flows, suggesting a strong start in complying with the deal.

There was also a sign this week the supply glut is easing, U.S. crude inventories fell 5 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected an increase.

At 18:54 GMT, July WTI crude oil is trading $33.87, up $0.35 or +1.28%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending higher. A trade through $35.18 will change the main trend to up. A move through $17.27 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through $24.38 will change the minor trend to down.

The main range is $54.86 to $17.27. Its retracement zone at $36.07 to $40.50 is the primary upside target.

The short-term range is $35.18 to $17.27. Its retracement zone at $28.34 to $26.23 is the primary downside target.

Short-Term Forecast

The key number to watch into the close on Thursday is yesterday’s close at $33.49.

A sustained move over $33.49 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough near-term momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at $35.18, followed by the main 50% level at $36.07.

A close under $33.49 on Thursday will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction.