James Hyerczyk
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WTI Crude Oil

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are edging higher late in the session on Monday after the U.S. Dollar retreated back to its intraday low. The weaker dollar likely drove up foreign demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.

Helping to hold crude oil in a range most of the session were worries over a surge in COVID-19 cases in India, the world’s third biggest oil importer. This news dampened the optimism for a sustained global recovery.

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At 21:00 GMT, June WTI crude oil is trading $63.50, up $0.31 or +0.49%.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $66.15. A move through $57.29 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through the minor top at $63.94 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

The main range is $51.04 to $67.29. Its retracement zone at $59.17 to $57.25 is support. This zone stopped the selling recently at $57.68 and $57.29.

The short-term range is $67.29 to $57.29. The market has been testing its retracement zone at $62.29 to $63.47 the past four session. Trader reaction to this area should determine the short-term direction.

The new minor range is $57.29 to $63.94. Its 50% level at $60.61 is a potential downside target.


Short-Term Outlook

Based on Monday’s trade, the direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract early Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at $63.47.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $63.47 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is $63.94. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside over this level so we could see the start of a rally into the next main top at $66.15.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $63.47 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the short-term 50% level at $62.29. Buyers could come in on a test of this level, but if it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor pivot at $60.61.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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