Crude Oil Price Update – Waiting for OPEC Decision on Production Cut Extension; $50.30 is the Pivot

November West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. The market is also trading inside yesterday’s range, indicating investor indecision and impending volatility.

Traders are waiting to see if OPEC and non-OPEC producers agree to extend production limits or deepen the cuts designed to trim the supply glut and stabilize prices.

Ministers from OPEC, Russia and other producing countries are currently meeting in Vienna to consider extending output cuts that began in January.

Kuwaiti Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq said on Thursday that compliance with OPEC-led oil output cuts was “very good” and above 100 percent. This supports the notion that OPEC will extend the deal, possibly to the end of next year.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $51.11 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This could create enough upside momentum to trigger a rally into the May 25 main top at $52.62.

The major retracement zone at $50.30 to $48.87 is new support. Trader reaction to this zone is likely to determine the direction of the market over the near-term.

Daily Forecast

Based on the current price at $50.44 and the earlier price action, the direction of the November WTI crude oil futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $50.30.

A sustained move over $50.30 will signal that buyers are coming in to support the market. This could trigger a rally into $51.11 then the target angle at $51.39. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before $52.62.

A sustained move under $50.30 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the uptrending angle at $49.89. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this angle. However, if it fails as support then look out to the downside since the next major downside target is the major 50% level at $48.87.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $50.30 all session. Trader reaction to this level will determine the direction of the market today.