It has been a bearish weekend for the crypto market, with Friday's US jobs report driving bets of two 75-basis point Fed rate hikes to wrap up the year.
It was a bearish Saturday session for the crypto top ten. XRP saw a five-day winning streak end, with BTC falling short of $20,000 for the first time in five sessions.
Friday’s US jobs report continued weighing investor appetite. A fall in the US unemployment rate to 3.5% allows the Fed to take a more aggressive path to bring inflation to target.
With a 75-basis point Fed rate hike for November baked in, the markets are looking toward the December move. The FedWatch tool gives a 63.1% probability of the Federal Funds Rate ending the year at 4.5% and a 23.4% chance of ending the year at 4.75%. One week ago, the probability of the Federal Funds Rate rising to 4.75% in December was 0%.
Following the NASDAQ 100’s 3.80% tumble on Friday, we expect the NASDAQ 100 Mini to influence the crypto market in the final hour (UTC) of today’s session. A lack of crypto news leaves the broader crypto market in the hands of the Fed, reflected in the continued crypto correlation with the NASDAQ.
On Saturday, the crypto market rose to an early morning high of $903.3 billion before sliding to a late low of $898.3 billion. However, a late partial recovery left the crypto market down $6.6 billion to $901.3 billion for the day.
The fourth consecutive daily loss left the crypto market cap up by $17 billion (+1.92%), Monday to Saturday.
However, ADA (-0.47%), BTC (-0.59%), and XRP (-0.18%) saw modest losses.
From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.
Quant (QNT) led the way, rallying by 7.24%, with bitcoin SV (BSV) and stellar’s lumen (XLM) seeing gains of 2.61% and 3.13%, respectively.
However, reserve rights (RSR) led the way down, sliding by 10.55%, with helium (HNT) and ecash (XEC) seeing losses of 5.08% and 9.05%, respectively.
Over 24 hours, total liquidations hit reverse, despite the bearish Saturday and bearish start to the Sunday session. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $32.09 million, down from $82.53 million on Saturday morning.
Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also fell. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 12,467 versus 23,689 on Saturday morning. Liquidations were down over one, four, and 12 hours.
According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations were down from $72.50 million to $27.06 million, with four-hour liquidations down from $3.70 million to $2.69 million. One-hour liquidations fell from $0.482 million to $0.202 million, which remains well below normal levels.
The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.