Dow Jones: Apple Hits $4.5T as AI Rally Sends US 30 to Record

Dow Hits Record as Iran Hopes and AI Rally Converge

The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke to a record intraday high Friday. First time since the Iran conflict started. The S&P 500 is eight straight weekly gains if it holds into the close, the best streak since late 2023. Apple added roughly 2% and crossed $4.5 trillion in market value. Two months ago this index was in correction territory. Now it is printing new highs heading into a long weekend.

Technical Outlook

Both the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) crossed to the strong side of a key short-term pivot area, putting them in a position to challenge their record highs.

The S&P 500 is trading well-above a key retracement level at 7447.05 to 7425.40, making this area new support. The move has put the market in a position to challenge 7517.12, its all-time high.

If 7425.40 fails to hold into the close then momentum has shifted to bearish, setting up the possibility of a change in trend and a steep sell-off under 7281.84.

For the Nasdaq, the key area I’m watching into the close on Friday is 26322.96 to 26204.29. Holding above this pivot area increases the odds of a new record high next week. A break below this zone will indicate a secondary lower top is forming, setting up the possibility of a change in trend and a steep sell-off under 25453.07.

The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently testing a record high at 50830.24. The momentum is strong after breaking the previous all-time high at 50512.79, suggesting we’ll see another new high before the close.

Correction to Record in Two Months

The Dow was in correction territory in March. The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher and traders pulled money out expecting the worst. Two months later the same index is at a record high. The Iran talks changed the tone completely. Money came back in on the expectation that a deal is coming and the speed of that reversal says everything about how much conviction was behind the March selloff. There was not much.

Qatar Showed Up in Tehran

A Qatari negotiating team landed in Tehran Friday in coordination with Washington. That is the headline that moved the market. Traders took it as a sign that a resolution is closer than the rhetoric suggests and priced accordingly. That is also the danger. One empty weekend and Friday’s gains have to come back out. This market has already paid for a deal that does not exist yet.

Qualcomm Jumped 12% and Took the Sector With It

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ripped higher Friday. Qualcomm led with a 12% gain and the rest of the chip sector followed. The AI trade is the only reason this is happening. Chip demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure is not a forecast anymore, it is a revenue line, and every session where that holds up is another session the rest of the market rides along on it.

Oil and Yields Have Not Left

The rally looks clean on the surface but the risks underneath it have not gone anywhere. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is still elevated. Higher energy costs go straight into inflation and sticky inflation keeps the Federal Reserve from cutting. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield stayed elevated Friday and at these levels it is pulling money away from equities. The stock market is rallying in spite of both of those, not because they went away.

Waller Just Made the Fed Harder to Read

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller wants to strip out the language that supports easier policy. That keeps the door open to more rate increases and the market has to price that in now. Kevin Warsh is stepping in for Jerome Powell and nobody knows what his Fed looks like yet. The leadership transition on top of the policy shift means the Fed is a bigger unknown going into the second half of the year than it was a month ago.

Movers Worth Watching

Estée Lauder gained after killing its merger talks with Spanish fragrance company Puig. Workday beat on revenue and profit and moved higher. Breadth was solid across both exchanges with advancers outnumbering decliners comfortably.

What to Watch

Record highs on the Dow, eight straight weeks on the S&P 500, and the AI trade still running. That is a lot of confidence heading into a long holiday weekend with the Iran talks unresolved, oil still elevated, and yields still high. If Qatar delivers something real over the weekend this rally extends. If it comes back empty the market that already priced in progress has to give some of it back.

The S&P 500 above 7447.05 keeps the door open to 7517.12 and a new all-time high. A break under 7425.40 flips momentum bearish and 7281.84 becomes the trigger for a larger selloff. On the Nasdaq, above 26322.96 and a new record is in play next week. Below 26204.29 and a secondary lower top is forming with 25453.07 as the acceleration point. The Dow already broke through 50512.79 and hit a new record at 50830.24. Momentum says another new high before the close.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.