E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – October 10, 2016 Forecast

December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are expected to open higher based on the pre-market trade. Today is a U.S. bank holiday and the Treasury markets are closed so the major players are taking the day off. The reason for the rally is partially a reaction to a strong European trade and partially due to the thin market conditions.

The Presidential debate on Sunday was declared a draw so with Hillary Clinton in the lead based on the polls, investors see no problem with playing the long side since she represents the status quo. Higher oil prices are also behind today’s early strength.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 18283 will turn the minor trend to up. The next minor trend top target comes in at 18366. The main top is 18468. The main trend will turn up on a trade through this level.

The main range is 18468 to 17822. Its 50% level or pivot is 18145. The Dow has straddled this level for almost a month. Holding above it will give the market an upside bias.

FORECAST

BASED ON THE EARLY STRENGTH, TRADERS ARE LIKELY TO GO AFTER THE MINOR TOP AT 18283 AND THE LONG-TERM DOWNTRENDING ANGLE AT 18292. OVERTAKING THIS ANGLE COULD TRIGGER A RALLY INTO THE NEXT MINOR TOP AT 18366.

TAKING OUT 18366 WILL BE A SIGN OF STRENGTH WITH THE NEXT RESISTANCE ANGLE COMING IN AT 18380. THIS IS THE LAST POTENTIAL RESISTANCE ANGLE BEFORE THE 18468 MAIN TOP.

ON THE DOWNSIDE, SUPPORT IS A PRICE CLUSTER AT 18145 TO 18142. LOOK FOR THE DOWNSIDE PRESSURE TO START IF THIS PRICE CLUSTER FAILS. THIS COULD DRIVE THE MARKET INTO A DOWNTRENDING ANGLE AT 18116. CROSSING TO THE WEAK SIDE OF THIS ANGLE WILL PUT THE DOW IN A BEARISH POSITION.

TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE ALL ABOUT WHETHER BUYERS CAN SUSTAIN THE EARLY UPSIDE MOMENTUM IN THE WAKE OF THE US BANK HOLIDAY AND THE LIGHT VOLUME AND VOLATLITY.