E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – August 20, 2019 Forecast

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the cash market opening. The market is also trading inside yesterday’s range, suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility.

There has been no follow-through to the upside following yesterday’s strong performance. This may be an indication that investors are unwilling to buy strength ahead of Wednesday’s release of the latest Fed monetary policy minutes and Friday’s key speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the central bankers’ symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

At 13:10 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 26099, down 19 or -0.08%.

Slightly higher gold prices, falling Treasury yields and a soaring Japanese Yen are all indications that today is likely to be a “risk-off” trading session so we’re not looking for much upside.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of a pair of closing price reversal bottoms at 25526 and 25032. Both are also secondary higher bottoms.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 26408. A move through 25226 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term retracement zone at 26215 to 26494 is providing resistance, while the main retracement zone at 26012 to 25685 is support. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Dow.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 26099, the direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 26215.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 26215 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the main 50% level at 26012. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target the main Fibonacci level at 25685.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 26215 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a change in trend on a move over 26408. However, don’t expect an acceleration to the upside unless buyers are able to overcome the short-term Fibonacci level at 26494 with conviction. This level is the true trigger point for a breakout to the upside.